Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects substantial uncertainty in Mexico City forecasts four days out, with market-implied odds evenly split across outcomes amid divergent model runs from the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) and global ensembles like GFS and ECMWF. April climatology at the city's 2,240-meter elevation typically yields highs near 26°C, driven by intense solar insolation in the dry season and minimal cloud interference, yet recent late-March cool outbreaks—featuring northerly winds and highs in the mid-teens—have introduced variability in boundary layer stability, boosting probabilities for both sub-23°C (25.5% for ≤21°C) and ≥31°C (25.5%) extremes. Key differentiators include potential persistence of cold air advection versus urban heat island amplification; monitor SMN daily advisories through April 4 for updates on upper-air patterns and cloud cover resolving the spread.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in Mexico City on April 5?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on April 5?
31°C or higher 48%
21°C or below 26%
23°C 18%
24°C 17%
新規
新規
2026/04/05
21°C or below
26%
22°C
15%
23°C
18%
24°C
17%
25°C
17%
26°C
16%
27°C
16%
28°C
13%
29°C
11%
30°C
9%
31°C or higher
48%
31°C or higher 48%
21°C or below 26%
23°C 18%
24°C 17%
新規
新規
2026/04/05
21°C or below
$0 Vol.
26%
22°C
$0 Vol.
15%
23°C
$0 Vol.
18%
24°C
$0 Vol.
17%
25°C
$0 Vol.
17%
26°C
$0 Vol.
16%
27°C
$0 Vol.
16%
28°C
$0 Vol.
13%
29°C
$0 Vol.
11%
30°C
$0 Vol.
9%
31°C or higher
$5 Vol.
48%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects substantial uncertainty in Mexico City forecasts four days out, with market-implied odds evenly split across outcomes amid divergent model runs from the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) and global ensembles like GFS and ECMWF. April climatology at the city's 2,240-meter elevation typically yields highs near 26°C, driven by intense solar insolation in the dry season and minimal cloud interference, yet recent late-March cool outbreaks—featuring northerly winds and highs in the mid-teens—have introduced variability in boundary layer stability, boosting probabilities for both sub-23°C (25.5% for ≤21°C) and ≥31°C (25.5%) extremes. Key differentiators include potential persistence of cold air advection versus urban heat island amplification; monitor SMN daily advisories through April 4 for updates on upper-air patterns and cloud cover resolving the spread.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Apr 1, 2026, 6:30 AM ET
音量
$5終了日
2026/04/05マーケット開始日
Apr 1, 2026, 6:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects substantial uncertainty in Mexico City forecasts four days out, with market-implied odds evenly split across outcomes amid divergent model runs from the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) and global ensembles like GFS and ECMWF. April climatology at the city's 2,240-meter elevation typically yields highs near 26°C, driven by intense solar insolation in the dry season and minimal cloud interference, yet recent late-March cool outbreaks—featuring northerly winds and highs in the mid-teens—have introduced variability in boundary layer stability, boosting probabilities for both sub-23°C (25.5% for ≤21°C) and ≥31°C (25.5%) extremes. Key differentiators include potential persistence of cold air advection versus urban heat island amplification; monitor SMN daily advisories through April 4 for updates on upper-air patterns and cloud cover resolving the spread.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$5終了日
2026/04/05マーケット開始日
Apr 1, 2026, 6:30 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects substantial uncertainty in Mexico City forecasts four days out, with market-implied odds evenly split across outcomes amid divergent model runs from the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) and global ensembles like GFS and ECMWF. April climatology at the city's 2,240-meter elevation typically yields highs near 26°C, driven by intense solar insolation in the dry season and minimal cloud interference, yet recent late-March cool outbreaks—featuring northerly winds and highs in the mid-teens—have introduced variability in boundary layer stability, boosting probabilities for both sub-23°C (25.5% for ≤21°C) and ≥31°C (25.5%) extremes. Key differentiators include potential persistence of cold air advection versus urban heat island amplification; monitor SMN daily advisories through April 4 for updates on upper-air patterns and cloud cover resolving the spread.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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