Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-term forecasts for São Paulo's highest temperature on April 4, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 28°C (25%) and 29°C (25.5%), driven by INMET's latest weekly outlook indicating persistent high temperatures across the Southeast region through April 6 amid a subtropical high-pressure ridge favoring warm advection and limited cloud cover. Recent model ensembles from sources like Climatempo and nearby station projections (e.g., up to 30°C in Barueri and Campinas) suggest potential for peaks near 29°C under partly sunny conditions, but isolated showers or increased afternoon clouds could cap highs at 28°C, differentiating outcomes amid typical April averages of 25-27°C influenced by autumnal cooling trends. Watch INMET daily updates and model refreshes by April 2 for shifts in convective activity.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on April 4?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on April 4?
29°C 26%
28°C 25%
30°C 17%
27°C 16%
新規
新規
2026/04/04
25°C or below
9%
26°C
9%
27°C
16%
28°C
25%
29°C
26%
30°C
17%
31°C
7%
32°C
1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C or higher
<1%
29°C 26%
28°C 25%
30°C 17%
27°C 16%
新規
新規
2026/04/04
25°C or below
$590 Vol.
9%
26°C
$466 Vol.
9%
27°C
$453 Vol.
16%
28°C
$582 Vol.
25%
29°C
$580 Vol.
26%
30°C
$553 Vol.
17%
31°C
$451 Vol.
7%
32°C
$362 Vol.
1%
33°C
$525 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$467 Vol.
<1%
35°C or higher
$628 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-term forecasts for São Paulo's highest temperature on April 4, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 28°C (25%) and 29°C (25.5%), driven by INMET's latest weekly outlook indicating persistent high temperatures across the Southeast region through April 6 amid a subtropical high-pressure ridge favoring warm advection and limited cloud cover. Recent model ensembles from sources like Climatempo and nearby station projections (e.g., up to 30°C in Barueri and Campinas) suggest potential for peaks near 29°C under partly sunny conditions, but isolated showers or increased afternoon clouds could cap highs at 28°C, differentiating outcomes amid typical April averages of 25-27°C influenced by autumnal cooling trends. Watch INMET daily updates and model refreshes by April 2 for shifts in convective activity.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Mar 29, 2026, 3:20 PM ET
音量
$5,657終了日
2026/04/04マーケット開始日
Mar 29, 2026, 3:20 PM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-term forecasts for São Paulo's highest temperature on April 4, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 28°C (25%) and 29°C (25.5%), driven by INMET's latest weekly outlook indicating persistent high temperatures across the Southeast region through April 6 amid a subtropical high-pressure ridge favoring warm advection and limited cloud cover. Recent model ensembles from sources like Climatempo and nearby station projections (e.g., up to 30°C in Barueri and Campinas) suggest potential for peaks near 29°C under partly sunny conditions, but isolated showers or increased afternoon clouds could cap highs at 28°C, differentiating outcomes amid typical April averages of 25-27°C influenced by autumnal cooling trends. Watch INMET daily updates and model refreshes by April 2 for shifts in convective activity.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$5,657終了日
2026/04/04マーケット開始日
Mar 29, 2026, 3:20 PM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-term forecasts for São Paulo's highest temperature on April 4, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 28°C (25%) and 29°C (25.5%), driven by INMET's latest weekly outlook indicating persistent high temperatures across the Southeast region through April 6 amid a subtropical high-pressure ridge favoring warm advection and limited cloud cover. Recent model ensembles from sources like Climatempo and nearby station projections (e.g., up to 30°C in Barueri and Campinas) suggest potential for peaks near 29°C under partly sunny conditions, but isolated showers or increased afternoon clouds could cap highs at 28°C, differentiating outcomes amid typical April averages of 25-27°C influenced by autumnal cooling trends. Watch INMET daily updates and model refreshes by April 2 for shifts in convective activity.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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