Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 26°C at 100% implied probability for Hong Kong's highest temperature on April 8, 2026, directly reflecting the official Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) measurement of 26.7°C at its King's Park station, captured via standard platinum resistance thermometer under calibrated conditions. This aligns with above-normal April temperatures forecasted by HKO, driven by persistent subtropical high-pressure influence and minimal cloud cover, yielding daily highs consistent with historical April averages of 25–27°C amid neutral ENSO patterns. Supporting evidence includes regional readings showing maxima around 26–27°C across stations. Realistic challenges are negligible post-measurement, barring rare instrument recalibration or data audit revisions by HKO, with final daily summary expected shortly.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Highest temperature in Hong Kong on April 8?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on April 8?
26°C 100.0%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$196,216 Vol.
$196,216 Vol.
19°C or below
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
Yes
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C or higher
No
26°C 100.0%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$196,216 Vol.
$196,216 Vol.
19°C or below
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
Yes
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C or higher
No
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: Apr 4, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 26°C at 100% implied probability for Hong Kong's highest temperature on April 8, 2026, directly reflecting the official Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) measurement of 26.7°C at its King's Park station, captured via standard platinum resistance thermometer under calibrated conditions. This aligns with above-normal April temperatures forecasted by HKO, driven by persistent subtropical high-pressure influence and minimal cloud cover, yielding daily highs consistent with historical April averages of 25–27°C amid neutral ENSO patterns. Supporting evidence includes regional readings showing maxima around 26–27°C across stations. Realistic challenges are negligible post-measurement, barring rare instrument recalibration or data audit revisions by HKO, with final daily summary expected shortly.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
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