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Highest temperature in Chicago on April 4?

Market icon

Highest temperature in Chicago on April 4?

Mar 29

Mar 30

Apr 1

Apr 2

Mar 29

Mar 30

Apr 1

Apr 2

57°F or below 38%

58-59°F 26%

64-65°F 12%

74-75°F 12%

Polymarket
NEW

57°F or below 38%

58-59°F 26%

64-65°F 12%

74-75°F 12%

Polymarket
NEW

57°F or below

$6 Vol.

29%

58-59°F

$0 Vol.

26%

60-61°F

$0 Vol.

10%

62-63°F

$0 Vol.

10%

64-65°F

$0 Vol.

12%

66-67°F

$0 Vol.

10%

68-69°F

$0 Vol.

9%

70-71°F

$0 Vol.

8%

72-73°F

$0 Vol.

7%

74-75°F

$7 Vol.

12%

76°F or higher

$15 Vol.

10%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering around 57-59°F (combined ~55% implied probability) for Chicago's April 4 high temperature, aligning closely with the National Weather Service climatological normal of 54.4°F while accounting for a late-March warming trend after regional blizzards and windstorms disrupted patterns through March 17. Ensemble guidance from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models shows a spread of 50-65°F due to uncertainty in jet stream positioning and potential cold air advection from lingering Great Lakes influences, which often moderate early spring highs via lake breezes and cloud cover. Key differentiators include boundary layer mixing under southwesterly flow versus overcast conditions from any upstream systems; new 12z model runs and NWS updates expected daily will refine probabilities ahead of resolution using official O'Hare observations.

Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering around 57-59°F (combined ~55% implied probability) for Chicago's April 4 high temperature, aligning closely with the National Weather Service climatological normal of 54.4°F while accounting for a late-March warming trend after regional blizzards and windstorms disrupted patterns through March 17. Ensemble guidance from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models shows a spread of 50-65°F due to uncertainty in jet stream positioning and potential cold air advection from lingering Great Lakes influences, which often moderate early spring highs via lake breezes and cloud cover. Key differentiators include boundary layer mixing under southwesterly flow versus overcast conditions from any upstream systems; new 12z model runs and NWS updates expected daily will refine probabilities ahead of resolution using official O'Hare observations.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering around 57-59°F (combined ~55% implied probability) for Chicago's April 4 high temperature, aligning closely with the National Weather Service climatological normal of 54.4°F while accounting for a late-March warming trend after regional blizzards and windstorms disrupted patterns through March 17. Ensemble guidance from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models shows a spread of 50-65°F due to uncertainty in jet stream positioning and potential cold air advection from lingering Great Lakes influences, which often moderate early spring highs via lake breezes and cloud cover. Key differentiators include boundary layer mixing under southwesterly flow versus overcast conditions from any upstream systems; new 12z model runs and NWS updates expected daily will refine probabilities ahead of resolution using official O'Hare observations.

Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering around 57-59°F (combined ~55% implied probability) for Chicago's April 4 high temperature, aligning closely with the National Weather Service climatological normal of 54.4°F while accounting for a late-March warming trend after regional blizzards and windstorms disrupted patterns through March 17. Ensemble guidance from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models shows a spread of 50-65°F due to uncertainty in jet stream positioning and potential cold air advection from lingering Great Lakes influences, which often moderate early spring highs via lake breezes and cloud cover. Key differentiators include boundary layer mixing under southwesterly flow versus overcast conditions from any upstream systems; new 12z model runs and NWS updates expected daily will refine probabilities ahead of resolution using official O'Hare observations.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

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よくある質問

「Highest temperature in Chicago on April 4?」はPolymarket上の11個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「57°F or below」で29%、次いで「58-59°F」が26%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、29¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に29%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

「Highest temperature in Chicago on April 4?」はPolymarket上で新しく作成された市場です（Mar 29, 2026開始）。早期の市場として、最初のトレーダーの一人としてオッズを設定し、市場の初期価格シグナルを確立するチャンスです。このページをブックマークして、取引量と活動を追跡することもできます。

「Highest temperature in Chicago on April 4?」で取引するには、このページに記載されている11個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「Highest temperature in Chicago on April 4?」の現在のフロントランナーは「57°F or below」で29%であり、市場がこの結果に29%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「58-59°F」で26%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「Highest temperature in Chicago on April 4?」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。