Latest ECMWF and GFS model ensembles project Istanbul's highest temperature on April 4 around 14-16°C under partly cloudy skies with scattered showers, positioning 16°C or higher as the trader-favored outcome at 40.5% implied probability amid typical early-spring mildness. Recent heavy rain on March 30 capped highs near 11°C, but southerly airflow and seasonal warming trends support recovery, aligning with climatological averages of 14-17°C for early April and historical variability from 8°C to 25°C. Model consensus reflects this balance, though cloud cover and frontal timing introduce uncertainty; traders await daily updates from the Turkish State Meteorological Service and NOAA GFS runs through April 2 for potential shifts in intensification or clearing.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 4?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 4?
16°C or higher 39%
13°C 26%
12°C 20%
15°C 18%
NEW
NEW
Apr 4, 2026
6°C or below
1%
7°C
1%
8°C
14%
9°C
15%
10°C
16%
11°C
18%
12°C
20%
13°C
26%
14°C
18%
15°C
18%
16°C or higher
39%
16°C or higher 39%
13°C 26%
12°C 20%
15°C 18%
NEW
NEW
Apr 4, 2026
6°C or below
$230 Vol.
1%
7°C
$223 Vol.
1%
8°C
$0 Vol.
14%
9°C
$0 Vol.
15%
10°C
$0 Vol.
16%
11°C
$0 Vol.
18%
12°C
$0 Vol.
20%
13°C
$9 Vol.
26%
14°C
$0 Vol.
18%
15°C
$0 Vol.
18%
16°C or higher
$3 Vol.
39%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ECMWF and GFS model ensembles project Istanbul's highest temperature on April 4 around 14-16°C under partly cloudy skies with scattered showers, positioning 16°C or higher as the trader-favored outcome at 40.5% implied probability amid typical early-spring mildness. Recent heavy rain on March 30 capped highs near 11°C, but southerly airflow and seasonal warming trends support recovery, aligning with climatological averages of 14-17°C for early April and historical variability from 8°C to 25°C. Model consensus reflects this balance, though cloud cover and frontal timing introduce uncertainty; traders await daily updates from the Turkish State Meteorological Service and NOAA GFS runs through April 2 for potential shifts in intensification or clearing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Mar 29, 2026, 3:28 PM ET
音量
$466終了日
Apr 4, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 29, 2026, 3:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ECMWF and GFS model ensembles project Istanbul's highest temperature on April 4 around 14-16°C under partly cloudy skies with scattered showers, positioning 16°C or higher as the trader-favored outcome at 40.5% implied probability amid typical early-spring mildness. Recent heavy rain on March 30 capped highs near 11°C, but southerly airflow and seasonal warming trends support recovery, aligning with climatological averages of 14-17°C for early April and historical variability from 8°C to 25°C. Model consensus reflects this balance, though cloud cover and frontal timing introduce uncertainty; traders await daily updates from the Turkish State Meteorological Service and NOAA GFS runs through April 2 for potential shifts in intensification or clearing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$466終了日
Apr 4, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 29, 2026, 3:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ECMWF and GFS model ensembles project Istanbul's highest temperature on April 4 around 14-16°C under partly cloudy skies with scattered showers, positioning 16°C or higher as the trader-favored outcome at 40.5% implied probability amid typical early-spring mildness. Recent heavy rain on March 30 capped highs near 11°C, but southerly airflow and seasonal warming trends support recovery, aligning with climatological averages of 14-17°C for early April and historical variability from 8°C to 25°C. Model consensus reflects this balance, though cloud cover and frontal timing introduce uncertainty; traders await daily updates from the Turkish State Meteorological Service and NOAA GFS runs through April 2 for potential shifts in intensification or clearing.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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