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4月1日のイスタンブールの最高気温は？

Market icon

4月1日のイスタンブールの最高気温は？

Mar 30

Mar 31

Apr 1

Apr 2

Mar 30

Mar 31

Apr 1

Apr 2

13℃ 23%

15°C 21%

14℃ 16%

12°C 14%

Polymarket
NEW

13℃ 23%

15°C 21%

14℃ 16%

12°C 14%

Polymarket
NEW

11°C以下

$13 Vol.

8%

12°C

$5 Vol.

14%

13℃

$5 Vol.

23%

14℃

$25 Vol.

16%

15°C

$15 Vol.

21%

16°C

$27 Vol.

12%

17℃

$88 Vol.

8%

18℃

$5 Vol.

9%

19°C

$5 Vol.

9%

20℃

$6 Vol.

7%

21℃以上

$220 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight forecast model clustering around 13–15°C for Istanbul's highest temperature on April 1, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble runs showing daytime peaks in this range amid persistent cool northerly airflow over the Marmara region. Early spring climatology supports average highs near 14°C, but differentiating factors include variable cloud cover—potentially capping temperatures at 12–13°C under overcast skies versus 15–16°C with partial clearing and sea breeze moderation from the Black Sea. Light rain chances add uncertainty, as boundary layer mixing and frontal timing remain key variables. New Turkish MGM and model updates expected within 48 hours could refine odds before resolution based on official airport observations.

Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight forecast model clustering around 13–15°C for Istanbul's highest temperature on April 1, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble runs showing daytime peaks in this range amid persistent cool northerly airflow over the Marmara region. Early spring climatology supports average highs near 14°C, but differentiating factors include variable cloud cover—potentially capping temperatures at 12–13°C under overcast skies versus 15–16°C with partial clearing and sea breeze moderation from the Black Sea. Light rain chances add uncertainty, as boundary layer mixing and frontal timing remain key variables. New Turkish MGM and model updates expected within 48 hours could refine odds before resolution based on official airport observations.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight forecast model clustering around 13–15°C for Istanbul's highest temperature on April 1, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble runs showing daytime peaks in this range amid persistent cool northerly airflow over the Marmara region. Early spring climatology supports average highs near 14°C, but differentiating factors include variable cloud cover—potentially capping temperatures at 12–13°C under overcast skies versus 15–16°C with partial clearing and sea breeze moderation from the Black Sea. Light rain chances add uncertainty, as boundary layer mixing and frontal timing remain key variables. New Turkish MGM and model updates expected within 48 hours could refine odds before resolution based on official airport observations.

Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight forecast model clustering around 13–15°C for Istanbul's highest temperature on April 1, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble runs showing daytime peaks in this range amid persistent cool northerly airflow over the Marmara region. Early spring climatology supports average highs near 14°C, but differentiating factors include variable cloud cover—potentially capping temperatures at 12–13°C under overcast skies versus 15–16°C with partial clearing and sea breeze moderation from the Black Sea. Light rain chances add uncertainty, as boundary layer mixing and frontal timing remain key variables. New Turkish MGM and model updates expected within 48 hours could refine odds before resolution based on official airport observations.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

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よくある質問

「4月1日のイスタンブールの最高気温は？」はPolymarket上の11個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「13℃」で23%、次いで「15°C」が21%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、23¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に23%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

「4月1日のイスタンブールの最高気温は？」はPolymarket上で新しく作成された市場です（Mar 29, 2026開始）。早期の市場として、最初のトレーダーの一人としてオッズを設定し、市場の初期価格シグナルを確立するチャンスです。このページをブックマークして、取引量と活動を追跡することもできます。

「4月1日のイスタンブールの最高気温は？」で取引するには、このページに記載されている11個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「4月1日のイスタンブールの最高気温は？」の現在のフロントランナーは「13℃」で23%であり、市場がこの結果に23%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「15°C」で21%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「4月1日のイスタンブールの最高気温は？」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。