Trader consensus on Polymarket reveals high uncertainty for Istanbul's highest temperature on April 2, with market-implied odds tightly clustered around 25% for 19°C or higher, 9°C or below, and 18°C, reflecting divergent ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts showing spreads of 7–10°C. Key differentiators include the track of an eastern Mediterranean low-pressure system—northerly winds behind it favoring cooler 9–15°C outcomes amid cloudiness and showers, versus southerly flows ahead enabling 16–19°C+ highs with more sunshine. Late-March observations confirm persistent cool anomalies (highs ~11°C) from Black Sea influences, but early-spring variability and model disagreements on ridging amplify the even split. New 00Z/12Z runs from Turkish State Meteorological Service and global models expected within 48 hours may clarify steering patterns.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 2?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 2?
9°C or below 20%
19°C or higher 20%
13°C 17%
14°C 17%
NEW
NEW
Apr 2, 2026
9°C or below
20%
10°C
12%
11°C
14%
12°C
16%
13°C
17%
14°C
17%
15°C
17%
16°C
9%
17°C
17%
18°C
17%
19°C or higher
20%
9°C or below 20%
19°C or higher 20%
13°C 17%
14°C 17%
NEW
NEW
Apr 2, 2026
9°C or below
$5 Vol.
20%
10°C
$0 Vol.
12%
11°C
$0 Vol.
14%
12°C
$0 Vol.
16%
13°C
$0 Vol.
17%
14°C
$0 Vol.
17%
15°C
$0 Vol.
17%
16°C
$0 Vol.
9%
17°C
$0 Vol.
17%
18°C
$0 Vol.
17%
19°C or higher
$0 Vol.
20%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reveals high uncertainty for Istanbul's highest temperature on April 2, with market-implied odds tightly clustered around 25% for 19°C or higher, 9°C or below, and 18°C, reflecting divergent ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts showing spreads of 7–10°C. Key differentiators include the track of an eastern Mediterranean low-pressure system—northerly winds behind it favoring cooler 9–15°C outcomes amid cloudiness and showers, versus southerly flows ahead enabling 16–19°C+ highs with more sunshine. Late-March observations confirm persistent cool anomalies (highs ~11°C) from Black Sea influences, but early-spring variability and model disagreements on ridging amplify the even split. New 00Z/12Z runs from Turkish State Meteorological Service and global models expected within 48 hours may clarify steering patterns.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Mar 29, 2026, 3:28 PM ET
音量
$5終了日
Apr 2, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 29, 2026, 3:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reveals high uncertainty for Istanbul's highest temperature on April 2, with market-implied odds tightly clustered around 25% for 19°C or higher, 9°C or below, and 18°C, reflecting divergent ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts showing spreads of 7–10°C. Key differentiators include the track of an eastern Mediterranean low-pressure system—northerly winds behind it favoring cooler 9–15°C outcomes amid cloudiness and showers, versus southerly flows ahead enabling 16–19°C+ highs with more sunshine. Late-March observations confirm persistent cool anomalies (highs ~11°C) from Black Sea influences, but early-spring variability and model disagreements on ridging amplify the even split. New 00Z/12Z runs from Turkish State Meteorological Service and global models expected within 48 hours may clarify steering patterns.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$5終了日
Apr 2, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 29, 2026, 3:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reveals high uncertainty for Istanbul's highest temperature on April 2, with market-implied odds tightly clustered around 25% for 19°C or higher, 9°C or below, and 18°C, reflecting divergent ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts showing spreads of 7–10°C. Key differentiators include the track of an eastern Mediterranean low-pressure system—northerly winds behind it favoring cooler 9–15°C outcomes amid cloudiness and showers, versus southerly flows ahead enabling 16–19°C+ highs with more sunshine. Late-March observations confirm persistent cool anomalies (highs ~11°C) from Black Sea influences, but early-spring variability and model disagreements on ridging amplify the even split. New 00Z/12Z runs from Turkish State Meteorological Service and global models expected within 48 hours may clarify steering patterns.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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