Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 16°C or below at 50% implied probability for Chengdu's highest temperature on April 6, reflecting split guidance in global forecast models like ECMWF and GFS amid early spring uncertainty. Recent observational data from Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport show highs near 24°C over the past week, but incoming low-pressure systems and persistent stratiform cloud cover—common in Sichuan Basin transitions—have prompted model runs projecting daytime maxima around 16–18°C with patchy rain possible. Historical early April averages hover at 20–22°C, yet high interannual variability and short-range forecast divergence keep odds balanced. Watch for China Meteorological Administration updates tomorrow, as new soundings could refine intensification potential or steering.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in Chengdu on April 6?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on April 6?
21°C 15%
20°C 13%
19°C 13%
22°C 13%
新規
新規
2026/04/06
16°C or below
7%
17°C
10%
18°C
12%
19°C
13%
20°C
13%
21°C
15%
22°C
13%
23°C
12%
24°C
12%
25°C
11%
26°C or higher
8%
21°C 15%
20°C 13%
19°C 13%
22°C 13%
新規
新規
2026/04/06
16°C or below
$193 Vol.
7%
17°C
$0 Vol.
10%
18°C
$0 Vol.
12%
19°C
$0 Vol.
13%
20°C
$2 Vol.
13%
21°C
$0 Vol.
15%
22°C
$0 Vol.
13%
23°C
$0 Vol.
12%
24°C
$0 Vol.
12%
25°C
$0 Vol.
11%
26°C or higher
$5 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 16°C or below at 50% implied probability for Chengdu's highest temperature on April 6, reflecting split guidance in global forecast models like ECMWF and GFS amid early spring uncertainty. Recent observational data from Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport show highs near 24°C over the past week, but incoming low-pressure systems and persistent stratiform cloud cover—common in Sichuan Basin transitions—have prompted model runs projecting daytime maxima around 16–18°C with patchy rain possible. Historical early April averages hover at 20–22°C, yet high interannual variability and short-range forecast divergence keep odds balanced. Watch for China Meteorological Administration updates tomorrow, as new soundings could refine intensification potential or steering.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Apr 2, 2026, 6:04 AM ET
音量
$200終了日
2026/04/06マーケット開始日
Apr 2, 2026, 6:04 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 16°C or below at 50% implied probability for Chengdu's highest temperature on April 6, reflecting split guidance in global forecast models like ECMWF and GFS amid early spring uncertainty. Recent observational data from Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport show highs near 24°C over the past week, but incoming low-pressure systems and persistent stratiform cloud cover—common in Sichuan Basin transitions—have prompted model runs projecting daytime maxima around 16–18°C with patchy rain possible. Historical early April averages hover at 20–22°C, yet high interannual variability and short-range forecast divergence keep odds balanced. Watch for China Meteorological Administration updates tomorrow, as new soundings could refine intensification potential or steering.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$200終了日
2026/04/06マーケット開始日
Apr 2, 2026, 6:04 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket prices 16°C or below at 50% implied probability for Chengdu's highest temperature on April 6, reflecting split guidance in global forecast models like ECMWF and GFS amid early spring uncertainty. Recent observational data from Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport show highs near 24°C over the past week, but incoming low-pressure systems and persistent stratiform cloud cover—common in Sichuan Basin transitions—have prompted model runs projecting daytime maxima around 16–18°C with patchy rain possible. Historical early April averages hover at 20–22°C, yet high interannual variability and short-range forecast divergence keep odds balanced. Watch for China Meteorological Administration updates tomorrow, as new soundings could refine intensification potential or steering.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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