Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in San Francisco's April 6 high temperature at SFO airport, with 66-67°F (26.5%) edging 74°F or higher (25.5%) amid model spread following March 2026's record-warm temperatures across the Bay Area. Latest National Weather Service guidance and AccuWeather forecasts indicate a mid-60s peak under partly sunny skies, driven by persistent marine layer stratus from recent onshore flow and post-frontal cooling after early-April rains, capping intensities despite a warming trend. However, GFS and ECMWF ensembles diverge: cooler runs emphasize fog persistence (favoring 62-69°F bins), while warmer outliers project ridge amplification offshore for clearer skies and 70°F+ potential. Watch daily NWS updates and 12z model runs for shifts before resolution per official SFO observations.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in San Francisco on April 6?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on April 6?
66-67°F 24%
68-69°F 23%
74°F or higher 17%
70-71°F 14%
新規
新規
2026/04/06
55°F or below
1%
56-57°F
1%
58-59°F
2%
60-61°F
9%
62-63°F
12%
64-65°F
11%
66-67°F
24%
68-69°F
23%
70-71°F
14%
72-73°F
11%
74°F or higher
17%
66-67°F 24%
68-69°F 23%
74°F or higher 17%
70-71°F 14%
新規
新規
2026/04/06
55°F or below
$406 Vol.
1%
56-57°F
$237 Vol.
1%
58-59°F
$30 Vol.
2%
60-61°F
$0 Vol.
9%
62-63°F
$0 Vol.
12%
64-65°F
$0 Vol.
11%
66-67°F
$0 Vol.
24%
68-69°F
$16 Vol.
23%
70-71°F
$6 Vol.
14%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
11%
74°F or higher
$5 Vol.
17%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in San Francisco's April 6 high temperature at SFO airport, with 66-67°F (26.5%) edging 74°F or higher (25.5%) amid model spread following March 2026's record-warm temperatures across the Bay Area. Latest National Weather Service guidance and AccuWeather forecasts indicate a mid-60s peak under partly sunny skies, driven by persistent marine layer stratus from recent onshore flow and post-frontal cooling after early-April rains, capping intensities despite a warming trend. However, GFS and ECMWF ensembles diverge: cooler runs emphasize fog persistence (favoring 62-69°F bins), while warmer outliers project ridge amplification offshore for clearer skies and 70°F+ potential. Watch daily NWS updates and 12z model runs for shifts before resolution per official SFO observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Apr 2, 2026, 6:31 AM ET
音量
$695終了日
2026/04/06マーケット開始日
Apr 2, 2026, 6:31 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in San Francisco's April 6 high temperature at SFO airport, with 66-67°F (26.5%) edging 74°F or higher (25.5%) amid model spread following March 2026's record-warm temperatures across the Bay Area. Latest National Weather Service guidance and AccuWeather forecasts indicate a mid-60s peak under partly sunny skies, driven by persistent marine layer stratus from recent onshore flow and post-frontal cooling after early-April rains, capping intensities despite a warming trend. However, GFS and ECMWF ensembles diverge: cooler runs emphasize fog persistence (favoring 62-69°F bins), while warmer outliers project ridge amplification offshore for clearer skies and 70°F+ potential. Watch daily NWS updates and 12z model runs for shifts before resolution per official SFO observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$695終了日
2026/04/06マーケット開始日
Apr 2, 2026, 6:31 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in San Francisco's April 6 high temperature at SFO airport, with 66-67°F (26.5%) edging 74°F or higher (25.5%) amid model spread following March 2026's record-warm temperatures across the Bay Area. Latest National Weather Service guidance and AccuWeather forecasts indicate a mid-60s peak under partly sunny skies, driven by persistent marine layer stratus from recent onshore flow and post-frontal cooling after early-April rains, capping intensities despite a warming trend. However, GFS and ECMWF ensembles diverge: cooler runs emphasize fog persistence (favoring 62-69°F bins), while warmer outliers project ridge amplification offshore for clearer skies and 70°F+ potential. Watch daily NWS updates and 12z model runs for shifts before resolution per official SFO observations.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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