Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects profound uncertainty for Chongqing's highest temperature on April 6, with even 50% implied probabilities across 19°C or below up to 23°C outcomes, driven by divergent short-range forecast models like GFS and ECMWF ensembles showing mean highs near 21-22°C but spreads of ±3°C. This stems from variable spring conditions in the Yangtze River basin, where Chongqing's topography traps moisture and heat, amplifying sensitivity to cloud cover, morning showers, and frontal passages—recent CMA updates indicate possible early thunderstorms capping diurnal heating below 22°C or allowing breaks to push toward 23°C. Historical early-April averages hover at 21°C, underscoring typical volatility; watch daily model refreshes and station observations for resolution-defining clarity.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in Chongqing on April 6?
Highest temperature in Chongqing on April 6?
19°C or below 39%
20°C 16%
22°C 14%
21°C 14%
新規
新規
2026/04/06
19°C or below
39%
20°C
16%
21°C
14%
22°C
14%
23°C
11%
24°C
12%
25°C
10%
26°C
9%
27°C
7%
28°C
1%
29°C or higher
1%
19°C or below 39%
20°C 16%
22°C 14%
21°C 14%
新規
新規
2026/04/06
19°C or below
$1 Vol.
39%
20°C
$10 Vol.
16%
21°C
$10 Vol.
14%
22°C
$0 Vol.
14%
23°C
$0 Vol.
11%
24°C
$0 Vol.
12%
25°C
$0 Vol.
10%
26°C
$0 Vol.
9%
27°C
$10 Vol.
7%
28°C
$203 Vol.
1%
29°C or higher
$203 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects profound uncertainty for Chongqing's highest temperature on April 6, with even 50% implied probabilities across 19°C or below up to 23°C outcomes, driven by divergent short-range forecast models like GFS and ECMWF ensembles showing mean highs near 21-22°C but spreads of ±3°C. This stems from variable spring conditions in the Yangtze River basin, where Chongqing's topography traps moisture and heat, amplifying sensitivity to cloud cover, morning showers, and frontal passages—recent CMA updates indicate possible early thunderstorms capping diurnal heating below 22°C or allowing breaks to push toward 23°C. Historical early-April averages hover at 21°C, underscoring typical volatility; watch daily model refreshes and station observations for resolution-defining clarity.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Apr 2, 2026, 6:12 AM ET
音量
$437終了日
2026/04/06マーケット開始日
Apr 2, 2026, 6:12 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects profound uncertainty for Chongqing's highest temperature on April 6, with even 50% implied probabilities across 19°C or below up to 23°C outcomes, driven by divergent short-range forecast models like GFS and ECMWF ensembles showing mean highs near 21-22°C but spreads of ±3°C. This stems from variable spring conditions in the Yangtze River basin, where Chongqing's topography traps moisture and heat, amplifying sensitivity to cloud cover, morning showers, and frontal passages—recent CMA updates indicate possible early thunderstorms capping diurnal heating below 22°C or allowing breaks to push toward 23°C. Historical early-April averages hover at 21°C, underscoring typical volatility; watch daily model refreshes and station observations for resolution-defining clarity.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$437終了日
2026/04/06マーケット開始日
Apr 2, 2026, 6:12 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects profound uncertainty for Chongqing's highest temperature on April 6, with even 50% implied probabilities across 19°C or below up to 23°C outcomes, driven by divergent short-range forecast models like GFS and ECMWF ensembles showing mean highs near 21-22°C but spreads of ±3°C. This stems from variable spring conditions in the Yangtze River basin, where Chongqing's topography traps moisture and heat, amplifying sensitivity to cloud cover, morning showers, and frontal passages—recent CMA updates indicate possible early thunderstorms capping diurnal heating below 22°C or allowing breaks to push toward 23°C. Historical early-April averages hover at 21°C, underscoring typical volatility; watch daily model refreshes and station observations for resolution-defining clarity.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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