Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a tight cluster of market-implied probabilities around 7–11°C for Moscow's highest temperature on April 6, mirroring the spread in global forecast model ensembles from ECMWF and GFS, which project daytime highs near 9°C under persistent cool northerly airflow from an Arctic air mass over European Russia. Differentiating factors include uncertainty in cloud cover and shortwave trough timing: clearer skies with light winds could push peaks toward 10–11°C via enhanced insolation, while increased cloudiness or gusty mixing might cap them at 7–8°C. Early April climatology supports this range, with historical highs averaging 6–9°C amid spring variability; watch daily 12Z ECMWF updates and ROSHYDROMET advisories for refinements ahead of resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in Moscow on April 6?
Highest temperature in Moscow on April 6?
9°C 23%
8°C 14%
7°C 11%
11°C 11%
新規
新規
2026/04/06
5°C or below
5%
6°C
13%
7°C
19%
8°C
21%
9°C
23%
10°C
16%
11°C
17%
12°C
7%
13°C
7%
14°C
5%
15°C or higher
3%
9°C 23%
8°C 14%
7°C 11%
11°C 11%
新規
新規
2026/04/06
5°C or below
$232 Vol.
5%
6°C
$7 Vol.
13%
7°C
$40 Vol.
19%
8°C
$17 Vol.
21%
9°C
$29 Vol.
23%
10°C
$24 Vol.
16%
11°C
$17 Vol.
17%
12°C
$25 Vol.
7%
13°C
$48 Vol.
7%
14°C
$53 Vol.
5%
15°C or higher
$143 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a tight cluster of market-implied probabilities around 7–11°C for Moscow's highest temperature on April 6, mirroring the spread in global forecast model ensembles from ECMWF and GFS, which project daytime highs near 9°C under persistent cool northerly airflow from an Arctic air mass over European Russia. Differentiating factors include uncertainty in cloud cover and shortwave trough timing: clearer skies with light winds could push peaks toward 10–11°C via enhanced insolation, while increased cloudiness or gusty mixing might cap them at 7–8°C. Early April climatology supports this range, with historical highs averaging 6–9°C amid spring variability; watch daily 12Z ECMWF updates and ROSHYDROMET advisories for refinements ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Apr 2, 2026, 6:37 AM ET
音量
$636終了日
2026/04/06マーケット開始日
Apr 2, 2026, 6:37 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a tight cluster of market-implied probabilities around 7–11°C for Moscow's highest temperature on April 6, mirroring the spread in global forecast model ensembles from ECMWF and GFS, which project daytime highs near 9°C under persistent cool northerly airflow from an Arctic air mass over European Russia. Differentiating factors include uncertainty in cloud cover and shortwave trough timing: clearer skies with light winds could push peaks toward 10–11°C via enhanced insolation, while increased cloudiness or gusty mixing might cap them at 7–8°C. Early April climatology supports this range, with historical highs averaging 6–9°C amid spring variability; watch daily 12Z ECMWF updates and ROSHYDROMET advisories for refinements ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$636終了日
2026/04/06マーケット開始日
Apr 2, 2026, 6:37 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a tight cluster of market-implied probabilities around 7–11°C for Moscow's highest temperature on April 6, mirroring the spread in global forecast model ensembles from ECMWF and GFS, which project daytime highs near 9°C under persistent cool northerly airflow from an Arctic air mass over European Russia. Differentiating factors include uncertainty in cloud cover and shortwave trough timing: clearer skies with light winds could push peaks toward 10–11°C via enhanced insolation, while increased cloudiness or gusty mixing might cap them at 7–8°C. Early April climatology supports this range, with historical highs averaging 6–9°C amid spring variability; watch daily 12Z ECMWF updates and ROSHYDROMET advisories for refinements ahead of resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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