Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts, corroborated by AccuWeather projections, indicate Moscow's highest temperature on April 4 reaching 13–15°C under a persistent high-pressure ridge fostering clear skies and mild westerly winds, driving the 70.5% market-implied probability for 14°C or higher. This positioning reflects a warm early-spring anomaly, with recent observations—such as 10–15°C highs on April 1–2—exceeding the climatological average of 8–10°C for early April, fueled by zonal upper-air flow. Trader sentiment favors 13°C (22%) as a conservative peak amid partial cloudiness risks, though inherent forecast uncertainty persists; new model runs every 12 hours from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts could refine probabilities before resolution based on official Vnukovo Airport observations.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in Moscow on April 4?
Highest temperature in Moscow on April 4?
14°C or higher 53%
13°C 20%
12°C 16%
11°C 8.0%
新規
新規
2026/04/04
4°C or below
<1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
1%
10°C
5%
11°C
8%
12°C
16%
13°C
20%
14°C or higher
60%
14°C or higher 53%
13°C 20%
12°C 16%
11°C 8.0%
新規
新規
2026/04/04
4°C or below
$766 Vol.
<1%
5°C
$696 Vol.
<1%
6°C
$563 Vol.
<1%
7°C
$386 Vol.
<1%
8°C
$910 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$559 Vol.
1%
10°C
$726 Vol.
5%
11°C
$445 Vol.
8%
12°C
$375 Vol.
16%
13°C
$376 Vol.
20%
14°C or higher
$575 Vol.
60%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts, corroborated by AccuWeather projections, indicate Moscow's highest temperature on April 4 reaching 13–15°C under a persistent high-pressure ridge fostering clear skies and mild westerly winds, driving the 70.5% market-implied probability for 14°C or higher. This positioning reflects a warm early-spring anomaly, with recent observations—such as 10–15°C highs on April 1–2—exceeding the climatological average of 8–10°C for early April, fueled by zonal upper-air flow. Trader sentiment favors 13°C (22%) as a conservative peak amid partial cloudiness risks, though inherent forecast uncertainty persists; new model runs every 12 hours from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts could refine probabilities before resolution based on official Vnukovo Airport observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Mar 29, 2026, 3:15 PM ET
音量
$6,377終了日
2026/04/04マーケット開始日
Mar 29, 2026, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts, corroborated by AccuWeather projections, indicate Moscow's highest temperature on April 4 reaching 13–15°C under a persistent high-pressure ridge fostering clear skies and mild westerly winds, driving the 70.5% market-implied probability for 14°C or higher. This positioning reflects a warm early-spring anomaly, with recent observations—such as 10–15°C highs on April 1–2—exceeding the climatological average of 8–10°C for early April, fueled by zonal upper-air flow. Trader sentiment favors 13°C (22%) as a conservative peak amid partial cloudiness risks, though inherent forecast uncertainty persists; new model runs every 12 hours from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts could refine probabilities before resolution based on official Vnukovo Airport observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$6,377終了日
2026/04/04マーケット開始日
Mar 29, 2026, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts, corroborated by AccuWeather projections, indicate Moscow's highest temperature on April 4 reaching 13–15°C under a persistent high-pressure ridge fostering clear skies and mild westerly winds, driving the 70.5% market-implied probability for 14°C or higher. This positioning reflects a warm early-spring anomaly, with recent observations—such as 10–15°C highs on April 1–2—exceeding the climatological average of 8–10°C for early April, fueled by zonal upper-air flow. Trader sentiment favors 13°C (22%) as a conservative peak amid partial cloudiness risks, though inherent forecast uncertainty persists; new model runs every 12 hours from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts could refine probabilities before resolution based on official Vnukovo Airport observations.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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