Current ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts for Warsaw on April 7 show a broad spread in projected high temperatures, typically centering around 11-13°C but ranging from 8°C to 16°C+, reflecting trader consensus in the closely matched market-implied odds. Early April weather in central Poland exhibits high variability due to fluctuating air masses—continental high-pressure ridges can deliver warmer advection up to 16°C or higher, while Atlantic lows bring cooler, cloudy conditions favoring 8-12°C outcomes. Historical climatology supports this, with average highs near 12°C but daily extremes common; no major developments in the past 48 hours have shifted model consensus significantly. Traders await daily IMGW updates and new ensemble runs for resolution clarity by week's end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 7?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 7?
10°C 25%
11°C 24%
12°C 21%
9°C 18%
新規
新規
2026/04/07
6°C or below
<1%
7°C
3%
8°C
8%
9°C
18%
10°C
25%
11°C
24%
12°C
21%
13°C
15%
14°C
8%
15°C
11%
16°C or higher
3%
10°C 25%
11°C 24%
12°C 21%
9°C 18%
新規
新規
2026/04/07
6°C or below
$201 Vol.
<1%
7°C
$223 Vol.
3%
8°C
$0 Vol.
8%
9°C
$0 Vol.
18%
10°C
$0 Vol.
25%
11°C
$0 Vol.
24%
12°C
$0 Vol.
21%
13°C
$99 Vol.
15%
14°C
$0 Vol.
8%
15°C
$0 Vol.
11%
16°C or higher
$20 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts for Warsaw on April 7 show a broad spread in projected high temperatures, typically centering around 11-13°C but ranging from 8°C to 16°C+, reflecting trader consensus in the closely matched market-implied odds. Early April weather in central Poland exhibits high variability due to fluctuating air masses—continental high-pressure ridges can deliver warmer advection up to 16°C or higher, while Atlantic lows bring cooler, cloudy conditions favoring 8-12°C outcomes. Historical climatology supports this, with average highs near 12°C but daily extremes common; no major developments in the past 48 hours have shifted model consensus significantly. Traders await daily IMGW updates and new ensemble runs for resolution clarity by week's end.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Apr 3, 2026, 6:24 AM ET
音量
$543終了日
2026/04/07マーケット開始日
Apr 3, 2026, 6:24 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts for Warsaw on April 7 show a broad spread in projected high temperatures, typically centering around 11-13°C but ranging from 8°C to 16°C+, reflecting trader consensus in the closely matched market-implied odds. Early April weather in central Poland exhibits high variability due to fluctuating air masses—continental high-pressure ridges can deliver warmer advection up to 16°C or higher, while Atlantic lows bring cooler, cloudy conditions favoring 8-12°C outcomes. Historical climatology supports this, with average highs near 12°C but daily extremes common; no major developments in the past 48 hours have shifted model consensus significantly. Traders await daily IMGW updates and new ensemble runs for resolution clarity by week's end.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$543終了日
2026/04/07マーケット開始日
Apr 3, 2026, 6:24 AM ETCurrent ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts for Warsaw on April 7 show a broad spread in projected high temperatures, typically centering around 11-13°C but ranging from 8°C to 16°C+, reflecting trader consensus in the closely matched market-implied odds. Early April weather in central Poland exhibits high variability due to fluctuating air masses—continental high-pressure ridges can deliver warmer advection up to 16°C or higher, while Atlantic lows bring cooler, cloudy conditions favoring 8-12°C outcomes. Historical climatology supports this, with average highs near 12°C but daily extremes common; no major developments in the past 48 hours have shifted model consensus significantly. Traders await daily IMGW updates and new ensemble runs for resolution clarity by week's end.
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