**Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a maximum temperature of 24°C in Chengdu on April 1, with 99.7% implied probability, driven by the China Meteorological Administration's latest forecast projecting this daytime high under overcast skies and light winds.** This positioning reflects numerical weather prediction model consensus, including ECMWF and GFS analogs, indicating limited solar insolation from persistent cloud cover will cap afternoon peaks around 24°C before possible evening showers, aligning closely with current hourly guidance from official monitoring stations like Chengdu Shuangliu Airport. Historical April highs average 22°C, but a mild air mass supports the modest elevation. Realistic challenges include unexpected clearing allowing greater surface heating to reach 25°C—unlikely per satellite imagery—or microscale variations in urban heat island effects, though real-time observations through late afternoon remain the key monitor for any shifts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in Chengdu on April 1?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on April 1?
24°C 99.5%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
27°C or higher <1%
$94,505 Vol.
$94,505 Vol.
2026/04/01
24°C
100%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C or higher
<1%
24°C 99.5%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
27°C or higher <1%
$94,505 Vol.
$94,505 Vol.
2026/04/01
24°C
$7,829 Vol.
100%
25°C
$13,670 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$7,738 Vol.
<1%
27°C or higher
$8,284 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a maximum temperature of 24°C in Chengdu on April 1, with 99.7% implied probability, driven by the China Meteorological Administration's latest forecast projecting this daytime high under overcast skies and light winds.** This positioning reflects numerical weather prediction model consensus, including ECMWF and GFS analogs, indicating limited solar insolation from persistent cloud cover will cap afternoon peaks around 24°C before possible evening showers, aligning closely with current hourly guidance from official monitoring stations like Chengdu Shuangliu Airport. Historical April highs average 22°C, but a mild air mass supports the modest elevation. Realistic challenges include unexpected clearing allowing greater surface heating to reach 25°C—unlikely per satellite imagery—or microscale variations in urban heat island effects, though real-time observations through late afternoon remain the key monitor for any shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Mar 29, 2026, 2:25 PM ET
音量
$94,505終了日
2026/04/01マーケット開始日
Mar 29, 2026, 2:25 PM ET提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a maximum temperature of 24°C in Chengdu on April 1, with 99.7% implied probability, driven by the China Meteorological Administration's latest forecast projecting this daytime high under overcast skies and light winds.** This positioning reflects numerical weather prediction model consensus, including ECMWF and GFS analogs, indicating limited solar insolation from persistent cloud cover will cap afternoon peaks around 24°C before possible evening showers, aligning closely with current hourly guidance from official monitoring stations like Chengdu Shuangliu Airport. Historical April highs average 22°C, but a mild air mass supports the modest elevation. Realistic challenges include unexpected clearing allowing greater surface heating to reach 25°C—unlikely per satellite imagery—or microscale variations in urban heat island effects, though real-time observations through late afternoon remain the key monitor for any shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$94,505終了日
2026/04/01マーケット開始日
Mar 29, 2026, 2:25 PM ET提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
**Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a maximum temperature of 24°C in Chengdu on April 1, with 99.7% implied probability, driven by the China Meteorological Administration's latest forecast projecting this daytime high under overcast skies and light winds.** This positioning reflects numerical weather prediction model consensus, including ECMWF and GFS analogs, indicating limited solar insolation from persistent cloud cover will cap afternoon peaks around 24°C before possible evening showers, aligning closely with current hourly guidance from official monitoring stations like Chengdu Shuangliu Airport. Historical April highs average 22°C, but a mild air mass supports the modest elevation. Realistic challenges include unexpected clearing allowing greater surface heating to reach 25°C—unlikely per satellite imagery—or microscale variations in urban heat island effects, though real-time observations through late afternoon remain the key monitor for any shifts.
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