Trader consensus prices CDU a 55% implied probability of topping the September 20 vote share in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus election under proportional representation, reflecting its consistent seven-point polling lead at 23% in the latest Civey survey for Tagesspiegel (March 2026). This edge stems from Governing Mayor Kai Wegner's steady incumbency amid the CDU-SPD coalition, bolstered by SPD's collapse to 8% in eastern districts from 16-18% in 2023. A fragmented opposition—AfD, Die Linke, SPD, and Grüne clustered at 15-16%—fuels the bunched lower odds, with no single challenger poised to overtake amid national CDU momentum from recent state wins in Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate. Upcoming campaign events could shift dynamics before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日CDU 55%
グリューネ 12.7%
AfD 11.3%
リンク 10%
$2,553,263 Vol.
$2,553,263 Vol.
2026/09/20
CDU
55%
グリューネ
13%
AfD
11%
リンク
10%
SPD
9%
BSW
1%
FW
<1%
FDP
<1%
CDU 55%
グリューネ 12.7%
AfD 11.3%
リンク 10%
$2,553,263 Vol.
$2,553,263 Vol.
2026/09/20
CDU
$11,934 Vol.
55%
グリューネ
$24,074 Vol.
13%
AfD
$2,182,676 Vol.
11%
リンク
$9,544 Vol.
10%
SPD
$286,337 Vol.
9%
BSW
$22,382 Vol.
1%
FW
$6,761 Vol.
<1%
FDP
$9,554 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Trader consensus prices CDU a 55% implied probability of topping the September 20 vote share in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus election under proportional representation, reflecting its consistent seven-point polling lead at 23% in the latest Civey survey for Tagesspiegel (March 2026). This edge stems from Governing Mayor Kai Wegner's steady incumbency amid the CDU-SPD coalition, bolstered by SPD's collapse to 8% in eastern districts from 16-18% in 2023. A fragmented opposition—AfD, Die Linke, SPD, and Grüne clustered at 15-16%—fuels the bunched lower odds, with no single challenger poised to overtake amid national CDU momentum from recent state wins in Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate. Upcoming campaign events could shift dynamics before resolution.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
マーケット開始日： Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ET
音量
$2,553,263終了日
2026/09/20マーケット開始日
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Trader consensus prices CDU a 55% implied probability of topping the September 20 vote share in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus election under proportional representation, reflecting its consistent seven-point polling lead at 23% in the latest Civey survey for Tagesspiegel (March 2026). This edge stems from Governing Mayor Kai Wegner's steady incumbency amid the CDU-SPD coalition, bolstered by SPD's collapse to 8% in eastern districts from 16-18% in 2023. A fragmented opposition—AfD, Die Linke, SPD, and Grüne clustered at 15-16%—fuels the bunched lower odds, with no single challenger poised to overtake amid national CDU momentum from recent state wins in Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate. Upcoming campaign events could shift dynamics before resolution.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
音量
$2,553,263終了日
2026/09/20マーケット開始日
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus prices CDU a 55% implied probability of topping the September 20 vote share in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus election under proportional representation, reflecting its consistent seven-point polling lead at 23% in the latest Civey survey for Tagesspiegel (March 2026). This edge stems from Governing Mayor Kai Wegner's steady incumbency amid the CDU-SPD coalition, bolstered by SPD's collapse to 8% in eastern districts from 16-18% in 2023. A fragmented opposition—AfD, Die Linke, SPD, and Grüne clustered at 15-16%—fuels the bunched lower odds, with no single challenger poised to overtake amid national CDU momentum from recent state wins in Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate. Upcoming campaign events could shift dynamics before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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