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エコノミー·中東·

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Ryan Petersen

2026年第1四半期のスエズ運河の1 k以上のコンテナ船の通過？

Market icon
エコノミー·中東·

Asked by

Ryan Petersen image

Ryan Petersen

2026年第1四半期のスエズ運河の1 k以上のコンテナ船の通過？

はい

2% chance
Polymarket

$49,683 Vol.

はい

2% chance
Polymarket

$49,683 Vol.

Container shipping through the Suez Canal has been severely impacted since late 2023 due to security concerns in the Red Sea related to Houthi attacks, with major carriers rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Prior to these concerns, the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) reported 5,847 container ship transits of the canal for the full year of 2023, for an average of about 1,461 container ship transits per quarter. Following the Houthi attacks, the number of container ships transiting the canal has dropped significantly, with a reported average of around 437 container ship transits of the canal per quarter in 2024. This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 1000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first quarter of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” report for Q1 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first quarter of 2026 by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through March 31, 2026.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 98.3% implied probability against 1,000+ container ship transits through the Suez Canal in Q1 2026, reflecting sustained Red Sea security disruptions from Houthi attacks that have routed major carriers like Maersk, CMA CGM, and Hapag-Lloyd around the Cape of Good Hope. January 2026 saw just 150 container transits—the weakest in a decade and down over 70% from pre-crisis norms of ~487 monthly—while Q4 2025 volumes plunged 86% year-over-year; March escalations, including renewed threats amid Iran-related tensions, have further suppressed traffic to 60% below 2023 levels. With Q1 nearing its March 31 close and cumulative transits far below threshold, tail risks include an abrupt ceasefire or naval security breakthrough enabling a late surge, though recent carrier advisories signal persistent aversion. Suez Canal Authority data, due by June 1, will confirm resolution.

Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 98.3% implied probability against 1,000+ container ship transits through the Suez Canal in Q1 2026, reflecting sustained Red Sea security disruptions from Houthi attacks that have routed major carriers like Maersk, CMA CGM, and Hapag-Lloyd around the Cape of Good Hope. January 2026 saw just 150 container transits—the weakest in a decade and down over 70% from pre-crisis norms of ~487 monthly—while Q4 2025 volumes plunged 86% year-over-year; March escalations, including renewed threats amid Iran-related tensions, have further suppressed traffic to 60% below 2023 levels. With Q1 nearing its March 31 close and cumulative transits far below threshold, tail risks include an abrupt ceasefire or naval security breakthrough enabling a late surge, though recent carrier advisories signal persistent aversion. Suez Canal Authority data, due by June 1, will confirm resolution.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
Container shipping through the Suez Canal has been severely impacted since late 2023 due to security concerns in the Red Sea related to Houthi attacks, with major carriers rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Prior to these concerns, the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) reported 5,847 container ship transits of the canal for the full year of 2023, for an average of about 1,461 container ship transits per quarter. Following the Houthi attacks, the number of container ships transiting the canal has dropped significantly, with a reported average of around 437 container ship transits of the canal per quarter in 2024. This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 1000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first quarter of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” report for Q1 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first quarter of 2026 by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through March 31, 2026.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 98.3% implied probability against 1,000+ container ship transits through the Suez Canal in Q1 2026, reflecting sustained Red Sea security disruptions from Houthi attacks that have routed major carriers like Maersk, CMA CGM, and Hapag-Lloyd around the Cape of Good Hope. January 2026 saw just 150 container transits—the weakest in a decade and down over 70% from pre-crisis norms of ~487 monthly—while Q4 2025 volumes plunged 86% year-over-year; March escalations, including renewed threats amid Iran-related tensions, have further suppressed traffic to 60% below 2023 levels. With Q1 nearing its March 31 close and cumulative transits far below threshold, tail risks include an abrupt ceasefire or naval security breakthrough enabling a late surge, though recent carrier advisories signal persistent aversion. Suez Canal Authority data, due by June 1, will confirm resolution.

Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 98.3% implied probability against 1,000+ container ship transits through the Suez Canal in Q1 2026, reflecting sustained Red Sea security disruptions from Houthi attacks that have routed major carriers like Maersk, CMA CGM, and Hapag-Lloyd around the Cape of Good Hope. January 2026 saw just 150 container transits—the weakest in a decade and down over 70% from pre-crisis norms of ~487 monthly—while Q4 2025 volumes plunged 86% year-over-year; March escalations, including renewed threats amid Iran-related tensions, have further suppressed traffic to 60% below 2023 levels. With Q1 nearing its March 31 close and cumulative transits far below threshold, tail risks include an abrupt ceasefire or naval security breakthrough enabling a late surge, though recent carrier advisories signal persistent aversion. Suez Canal Authority data, due by June 1, will confirm resolution.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

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よくある質問

「2026年第1四半期のスエズ運河の1 k以上のコンテナ船の通過？」はPolymarket上の2個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「2026年第1四半期にスエズ運河を通過するコンテナ船は1,000隻以上？」で2%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、2¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に2%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「2026年第1四半期のスエズ運河の1 k以上のコンテナ船の通過？」は$49.7Kの総取引量を生み出しています（Nov 25, 2025のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「2026年第1四半期のスエズ運河の1 k以上のコンテナ船の通過？」で取引するには、このページに記載されている2個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

これは非常に拮抗した市場です。「2026年第1四半期のスエズ運河の1 k以上のコンテナ船の通過？」の現在のリーダーは「2026年第1四半期にスエズ運河を通過するコンテナ船は1,000隻以上？」でわずか2%です。どの結果も強い多数派を占めていないため、トレーダーはこれを非常に不確実と見ており、独自の取引機会を提供する可能性があります。これらのオッズはリアルタイムで更新されますので、このページをブックマークしてください。

「2026年第1四半期のスエズ運河の1 k以上のコンテナ船の通過？」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。