Trader consensus implies an 86% probability against Alberta holding an independence vote in 2026, driven by persistently low public support—polls like Abacus Data's March survey show only 29% favoring separation—despite Stay Free Alberta's submission of 302,000 signatures on May 4 to trigger a citizen initiative referendum under provincial rules requiring 177,732 valid signatures. Premier Danielle Smith's United Conservative Party government announced a separate October 19 referendum on nine questions addressing immigration limits and constitutional reforms, emphasizing sovereignty within Canada rather than secession, which dilutes separatist momentum. Legal challenges loom, including Indigenous groups' injunctions citing treaty rights, while federal negotiations under the Clarity Act would follow any yes vote, facing stiff Ottawa opposition from Prime Minister Carney. Signature verification by Elections Alberta remains pending amid these barriers.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
$64,085 Vol.
$64,085 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
$64,085 Vol.
$64,085 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus implies an 86% probability against Alberta holding an independence vote in 2026, driven by persistently low public support—polls like Abacus Data's March survey show only 29% favoring separation—despite Stay Free Alberta's submission of 302,000 signatures on May 4 to trigger a citizen initiative referendum under provincial rules requiring 177,732 valid signatures. Premier Danielle Smith's United Conservative Party government announced a separate October 19 referendum on nine questions addressing immigration limits and constitutional reforms, emphasizing sovereignty within Canada rather than secession, which dilutes separatist momentum. Legal challenges loom, including Indigenous groups' injunctions citing treaty rights, while federal negotiations under the Clarity Act would follow any yes vote, facing stiff Ottawa opposition from Prime Minister Carney. Signature verification by Elections Alberta remains pending amid these barriers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jan 30, 2026, 6:28 PM ET
Volume
$64,085Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 30, 2026, 6:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus implies an 86% probability against Alberta holding an independence vote in 2026, driven by persistently low public support—polls like Abacus Data's March survey show only 29% favoring separation—despite Stay Free Alberta's submission of 302,000 signatures on May 4 to trigger a citizen initiative referendum under provincial rules requiring 177,732 valid signatures. Premier Danielle Smith's United Conservative Party government announced a separate October 19 referendum on nine questions addressing immigration limits and constitutional reforms, emphasizing sovereignty within Canada rather than secession, which dilutes separatist momentum. Legal challenges loom, including Indigenous groups' injunctions citing treaty rights, while federal negotiations under the Clarity Act would follow any yes vote, facing stiff Ottawa opposition from Prime Minister Carney. Signature verification by Elections Alberta remains pending amid these barriers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$64,085Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 30, 2026, 6:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus implies an 86% probability against Alberta holding an independence vote in 2026, driven by persistently low public support—polls like Abacus Data's March survey show only 29% favoring separation—despite Stay Free Alberta's submission of 302,000 signatures on May 4 to trigger a citizen initiative referendum under provincial rules requiring 177,732 valid signatures. Premier Danielle Smith's United Conservative Party government announced a separate October 19 referendum on nine questions addressing immigration limits and constitutional reforms, emphasizing sovereignty within Canada rather than secession, which dilutes separatist momentum. Legal challenges loom, including Indigenous groups' injunctions citing treaty rights, while federal negotiations under the Clarity Act would follow any yes vote, facing stiff Ottawa opposition from Prime Minister Carney. Signature verification by Elections Alberta remains pending amid these barriers.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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