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Élections·Trump

Vainqueur de la primaire démocratique NY-12

Market icon
Élections·Trump

Vainqueur de la primaire démocratique NY-12

Micah Lasher 43%

Alex Bores 30%

Jack Schlossberg 19%

Erik Bottcher 4.5%

Polymarket

$104,440 Vol.

Micah Lasher 43%

Alex Bores 30%

Jack Schlossberg 19%

Erik Bottcher 4.5%

Polymarket

$104,440 Vol.

Micah Lasher

$4,468 Vol.

43%

Alex Bores

$2,825 Vol.

30%

Jack Schlossberg

$5,255 Vol.

19%

Erik Bottcher

$1,823 Vol.

5%

George Conway

$1,409 Vol.

2%

Liz Krueger

$36,794 Vol.

1%

Julie Menin

$22,807 Vol.

1%

Lina Khan

$1,801 Vol.

1%

Cameron Kasky

$2,298 Vol.

1%

Andrew Cuomo

$1,559 Vol.

<1%

Brad Hoylman-Sigal

$4,664 Vol.

<1%

Keith Powers

$2,473 Vol.

<1%

Gale Brewer

$1,244 Vol.

<1%

Carolyn Maloney

$1,789 Vol.

<1%

Brad Lander

$1,255 Vol.

<1%

Chelsea Clinton

$6,916 Vol.

<1%

Liam Elkind

$1,454 Vol.

<1%

Scott Stringer

$1,964 Vol.

<1%

Cynthia Nixon

$1,641 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Following Rep. Jerry Nadler's retirement announcement, the crowded NY-12 Democratic primary on June 23 remains closely contested, with trader consensus favoring Assemblyman Micah Lasher at 42.5% implied probability due to his endorsement from Nadler—his former aide—and a major March 12 commitment from Michael Bloomberg for multimillion-dollar super PAC spending. Assemblyman Alex Bores trails at 30%, bolstered by Carolyn Maloney's backing and a recent DC 37 union endorsement, signaling rising labor support amid critiques of his out-of-district fundraising. Jack Schlossberg holds 19% on early name recognition from March polls showing him ahead amid 33% undecideds, but lacks institutional depth; high early-voting turnout and further polls could shift dynamics in this safe Democratic seat.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$104,440
Date de fin
23 juin 2026
Marché ouvert
Nov 21, 2025, 10:47 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Following Rep. Jerry Nadler's retirement announcement, the crowded NY-12 Democratic primary on June 23 remains closely contested, with trader consensus favoring Assemblyman Micah Lasher at 42.5% implied probability due to his endorsement from Nadler—his former aide—and a major March 12 commitment from Michael Bloomberg for multimillion-dollar super PAC spending. Assemblyman Alex Bores trails at 30%, bolstered by Carolyn Maloney's backing and a recent DC 37 union endorsement, signaling rising labor support amid critiques of his out-of-district fundraising. Jack Schlossberg holds 19% on early name recognition from March polls showing him ahead amid 33% undecideds, but lacks institutional depth; high early-voting turnout and further polls could shift dynamics in this safe Democratic seat.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$104,440
Date de fin
23 juin 2026
Marché ouvert
Nov 21, 2025, 10:47 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Questions fréquentes

« Vainqueur de la primaire démocratique NY-12 » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 19 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Micah Lasher » à 43%, suivi de « Alex Bores » à 30%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 43¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 43% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Vainqueur de la primaire démocratique NY-12 » a généré $104.4K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Nov 21, 2025. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Vainqueur de la primaire démocratique NY-12 », parcourez les 19 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Vainqueur de la primaire démocratique NY-12 » est « Micah Lasher » à 43%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 43% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Alex Bores » à 30%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Vainqueur de la primaire démocratique NY-12 » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.