With the April 12 first-round presidential vote just days away, trader consensus heavily favors "Other" at 73% implied probability due to extreme vote fragmentation among Peru's record 35 candidates, as shown in recent Ipsos and Datum polls where no one exceeds 18% of valid votes and undecided voters hover at 15-22%. Right-wing frontrunners Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori, polling around 11-18% each, position their pairing at 12% after leading most March surveys in a technical tie, but late shifts—like Carlos Álvarez's surge to 9% in an April Ipsos poll and López Aliaga's slip—boost odds for unexpected top-two combinations. High indecision and outsider momentum underscore the closely contested runoff path.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourWhich candidates advance to 2026 Peru presidential runoff?
Which candidates advance to 2026 Peru presidential runoff?
Other 73.1%
López Aliaga & Fujimori 11%
Fujimori & Nieto 2.8%
López Aliaga & Sánchez Palomino 2.4%
$202,247 Vol.
$202,247 Vol.
Other
73%
López Aliaga & Fujimori
11%
Fujimori & Nieto
3%
López Aliaga & Sánchez Palomino
2%
López Chau & Fujimori
2%
López Aliaga & Nieto
2%
López Chau & Nieto
1%
López Aliaga & López Chau
1%
López Aliaga & Grozo
1%
López Chau & Sánchez Palomino
<1%
Other 73.1%
López Aliaga & Fujimori 11%
Fujimori & Nieto 2.8%
López Aliaga & Sánchez Palomino 2.4%
$202,247 Vol.
$202,247 Vol.
Other
73%
López Aliaga & Fujimori
11%
Fujimori & Nieto
3%
López Aliaga & Sánchez Palomino
2%
López Chau & Fujimori
2%
López Aliaga & Nieto
2%
López Chau & Nieto
1%
López Aliaga & López Chau
1%
López Aliaga & Grozo
1%
López Chau & Sánchez Palomino
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed pair of candidates who advance to the runoff of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election.
If a different combination of candidates than those listed below advances to the runoff, if no runoff is being held, for example, because a candidate wins the first round outright, or if the candidates of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/).
Marché ouvert : Mar 23, 2026, 2:03 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the listed pair of candidates who advance to the runoff of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election.
If a different combination of candidates than those listed below advances to the runoff, if no runoff is being held, for example, because a candidate wins the first round outright, or if the candidates of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/).
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...With the April 12 first-round presidential vote just days away, trader consensus heavily favors "Other" at 73% implied probability due to extreme vote fragmentation among Peru's record 35 candidates, as shown in recent Ipsos and Datum polls where no one exceeds 18% of valid votes and undecided voters hover at 15-22%. Right-wing frontrunners Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori, polling around 11-18% each, position their pairing at 12% after leading most March surveys in a technical tie, but late shifts—like Carlos Álvarez's surge to 9% in an April Ipsos poll and López Aliaga's slip—boost odds for unexpected top-two combinations. High indecision and outsider momentum underscore the closely contested runoff path.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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