Trader consensus overwhelmingly backs Liberal candidate Danielle Martin at near-certainty in the University—Rosedale federal by-election, reflecting the riding's status as a longstanding Liberal stronghold in urban Toronto, where the party captured 64% of the vote in the 2025 general election under Chrystia Freeland before her January resignation. Martin's profile as a prominent family physician and University of Toronto health leader, bolstered by recent high-profile endorsements from Mark Carney and intensive Liberal canvassing during advance polls opened April 3, has solidified her commanding position amid nominations closed March 23. Challengers like Conservative Don Hodgson and NDP's Serena Purdy trail sharply in this first-past-the-post race set for April 13, with upset scenarios limited to unforeseen scandals, health issues, or anomalous low Liberal turnout.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourDanielle Martin 99.4%
Imran Khan <1%
Don Hodgson <1%
Samuel Baxter <1%
$52,070 Vol.
$52,070 Vol.
Danielle Martin
99%
Imran Khan
1%
Don Hodgson
<1%
Samuel Baxter
<1%
Andy D’Andrea
<1%
Leslie Bory
<1%
Bill Whatcott
<1%
Serena Purdy
<1%
Andrew Massey
<1%
Raiden DeDominicis
<1%
Danielle Martin 99.4%
Imran Khan <1%
Don Hodgson <1%
Samuel Baxter <1%
$52,070 Vol.
$52,070 Vol.
Danielle Martin
99%
Imran Khan
1%
Don Hodgson
<1%
Samuel Baxter
<1%
Andy D’Andrea
<1%
Leslie Bory
<1%
Bill Whatcott
<1%
Serena Purdy
<1%
Andrew Massey
<1%
Raiden DeDominicis
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the University—Rosedale, Ontario seat in the House of Commons of Canada.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).
Marché ouvert : Apr 3, 2026, 7:46 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the University—Rosedale, Ontario seat in the House of Commons of Canada.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus overwhelmingly backs Liberal candidate Danielle Martin at near-certainty in the University—Rosedale federal by-election, reflecting the riding's status as a longstanding Liberal stronghold in urban Toronto, where the party captured 64% of the vote in the 2025 general election under Chrystia Freeland before her January resignation. Martin's profile as a prominent family physician and University of Toronto health leader, bolstered by recent high-profile endorsements from Mark Carney and intensive Liberal canvassing during advance polls opened April 3, has solidified her commanding position amid nominations closed March 23. Challengers like Conservative Don Hodgson and NDP's Serena Purdy trail sharply in this first-past-the-post race set for April 13, with upset scenarios limited to unforeseen scandals, health issues, or anomalous low Liberal turnout.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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