Mid-decade redistricting transformed Texas' 32nd Congressional District from a prior Democratic lean into a Solid Republican seat per Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball, anchoring trader consensus at 73% implied probability for the Republican Party. In the March 3 primaries, attorney Jace Yarbrough captured 49% of the GOP vote—outpacing nine candidates—and secured the nomination after runner-up Ryan Binkley withdrew on March 17, canceling a runoff and consolidating support. Democrats nominated Richardson City Councilman Dan Barrios, who won his primary with 60%. Absent public polling, odds reflect the district's partisan shift, Yarbrough's Trump endorsement and fundraising lead ($198,000 cash-on-hand versus Barrios' $18,000), and higher GOP primary turnout, with the general election set for November 3.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourVainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre TX-32
Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre TX-32
$24,723 Vol.
$24,723 Vol.
4 nov. 2026
Parti républicain
78%
Parti démocrate
17%
$24,723 Vol.
$24,723 Vol.
4 nov. 2026
Parti républicain
$24,723 Vol.
78%
Parti démocrate
$0 Vol.
17%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Mid-decade redistricting transformed Texas' 32nd Congressional District from a prior Democratic lean into a Solid Republican seat per Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball, anchoring trader consensus at 73% implied probability for the Republican Party. In the March 3 primaries, attorney Jace Yarbrough captured 49% of the GOP vote—outpacing nine candidates—and secured the nomination after runner-up Ryan Binkley withdrew on March 17, canceling a runoff and consolidating support. Democrats nominated Richardson City Councilman Dan Barrios, who won his primary with 60%. Absent public polling, odds reflect the district's partisan shift, Yarbrough's Trump endorsement and fundraising lead ($198,000 cash-on-hand versus Barrios' $18,000), and higher GOP primary turnout, with the general election set for November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ET
Volume
$24,723Date de fin
4 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Mid-decade redistricting transformed Texas' 32nd Congressional District from a prior Democratic lean into a Solid Republican seat per Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball, anchoring trader consensus at 73% implied probability for the Republican Party. In the March 3 primaries, attorney Jace Yarbrough captured 49% of the GOP vote—outpacing nine candidates—and secured the nomination after runner-up Ryan Binkley withdrew on March 17, canceling a runoff and consolidating support. Democrats nominated Richardson City Councilman Dan Barrios, who won his primary with 60%. Absent public polling, odds reflect the district's partisan shift, Yarbrough's Trump endorsement and fundraising lead ($198,000 cash-on-hand versus Barrios' $18,000), and higher GOP primary turnout, with the general election set for November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$24,723Date de fin
4 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Mid-decade redistricting transformed Texas' 32nd Congressional District from a prior Democratic lean into a Solid Republican seat per Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball, anchoring trader consensus at 73% implied probability for the Republican Party. In the March 3 primaries, attorney Jace Yarbrough captured 49% of the GOP vote—outpacing nine candidates—and secured the nomination after runner-up Ryan Binkley withdrew on March 17, canceling a runoff and consolidating support. Democrats nominated Richardson City Councilman Dan Barrios, who won his primary with 60%. Absent public polling, odds reflect the district's partisan shift, Yarbrough's Trump endorsement and fundraising lead ($198,000 cash-on-hand versus Barrios' $18,000), and higher GOP primary turnout, with the general election set for November 3.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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