Incumbent Democrat Donald Norcross commands trader consensus at 90.5% implied probability in the NJ-01 House race, reflecting the district's strong D+10 Cook PVI lean, consistent Safe/Solid Democratic ratings from forecasters like Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Norcross's dominant history including a 57.8% 2024 win. Recent AFSCME New Jersey Council 63 endorsement on March 23—backing the labor caucus chair with 20,000 public workers—plus nearly $2 million cash-on-hand as of late 2025, solidify his position ahead of the June 2 primaries, where he faces token Democratic opposition and Republican Damon Galdo, a perennial primary loser. Upsets remain possible via Norcross scandal, GOP late recruit, or national Republican midterm wave, though structural barriers favor Democratic retention on November 3.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourNJ-01 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
NJ-01 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
91%
Parti républicain
8%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
$0 Vol.
91%
Parti républicain
$0 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Donald Norcross commands trader consensus at 90.5% implied probability in the NJ-01 House race, reflecting the district's strong D+10 Cook PVI lean, consistent Safe/Solid Democratic ratings from forecasters like Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Norcross's dominant history including a 57.8% 2024 win. Recent AFSCME New Jersey Council 63 endorsement on March 23—backing the labor caucus chair with 20,000 public workers—plus nearly $2 million cash-on-hand as of late 2025, solidify his position ahead of the June 2 primaries, where he faces token Democratic opposition and Republican Damon Galdo, a perennial primary loser. Upsets remain possible via Norcross scandal, GOP late recruit, or national Republican midterm wave, though structural barriers favor Democratic retention on November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$0Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Donald Norcross commands trader consensus at 90.5% implied probability in the NJ-01 House race, reflecting the district's strong D+10 Cook PVI lean, consistent Safe/Solid Democratic ratings from forecasters like Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Norcross's dominant history including a 57.8% 2024 win. Recent AFSCME New Jersey Council 63 endorsement on March 23—backing the labor caucus chair with 20,000 public workers—plus nearly $2 million cash-on-hand as of late 2025, solidify his position ahead of the June 2 primaries, where he faces token Democratic opposition and Republican Damon Galdo, a perennial primary loser. Upsets remain possible via Norcross scandal, GOP late recruit, or national Republican midterm wave, though structural barriers favor Democratic retention on November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$0Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Donald Norcross commands trader consensus at 90.5% implied probability in the NJ-01 House race, reflecting the district's strong D+10 Cook PVI lean, consistent Safe/Solid Democratic ratings from forecasters like Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Norcross's dominant history including a 57.8% 2024 win. Recent AFSCME New Jersey Council 63 endorsement on March 23—backing the labor caucus chair with 20,000 public workers—plus nearly $2 million cash-on-hand as of late 2025, solidify his position ahead of the June 2 primaries, where he faces token Democratic opposition and Republican Damon Galdo, a perennial primary loser. Upsets remain possible via Norcross scandal, GOP late recruit, or national Republican midterm wave, though structural barriers favor Democratic retention on November 3.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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