Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 22°C as Taipei's highest temperature on March 21, driven by Taiwan Central Weather Administration forecasts projecting a daytime peak of 22°C under lingering cool-season stability with light northeasterly winds and scattered clouds capping solar heating. Recent observations confirm morning lows near 18°C and afternoon readings stabilizing around 21-22°C, aligning with March climatology where average highs hover at 22-23°C and exceedances beyond 25°C occur in under 5% of cases historically. Ensemble weather models from ECMWF and GFS reinforce this with 99% agreement within ±1°C. Realistic challenges include an unexpected clearance of clouds boosting insolation or a stalled cold front dissipating prematurely, potentially elevating peaks to 23-24°C, though current satellite imagery shows persistent overcast minimizing such risks.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Taipei on March 21?
Highest temperature in Taipei on March 21?
22°C 99.4%
23°C <1%
25°C <1%
24°C <1%
$40,476 Vol.
$40,476 Vol.
22°C
99%
23°C
1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C or higher
<1%
22°C 99.4%
23°C <1%
25°C <1%
24°C <1%
$40,476 Vol.
$40,476 Vol.
22°C
99%
23°C
1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Taipei Central Weather Administration, specifically the highest reading under the "Temperature" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.cwa.gov.tw/V8/C/W/OBS_Station.html?ID=46692
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 17, 2026, 6:31 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 22°C as Taipei's highest temperature on March 21, driven by Taiwan Central Weather Administration forecasts projecting a daytime peak of 22°C under lingering cool-season stability with light northeasterly winds and scattered clouds capping solar heating. Recent observations confirm morning lows near 18°C and afternoon readings stabilizing around 21-22°C, aligning with March climatology where average highs hover at 22-23°C and exceedances beyond 25°C occur in under 5% of cases historically. Ensemble weather models from ECMWF and GFS reinforce this with 99% agreement within ±1°C. Realistic challenges include an unexpected clearance of clouds boosting insolation or a stalled cold front dissipating prematurely, potentially elevating peaks to 23-24°C, though current satellite imagery shows persistent overcast minimizing such risks.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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