Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 18°C (40.5%) and 17°C (35.5%) as Shanghai's highest temperature on March 22, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS model ensembles projecting peaks in the 17-18°C range amid mild southerly flows and partial cloud cover. Differentiating factors include solar insolation—fuller sunshine could push to 18°C via enhanced diurnal heating, while increased overcast from upstream moisture favors 17°C—and urban heat island amplification in Shanghai, which adds 1-2°C above rural baselines. Historical March 22 averages hover at 14-15°C, but recent warming trends and minimal cold air advection elevate odds; hourly observations from Pudong station will resolve precise maxima amid 1-2°C forecast uncertainty.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Shanghai on March 22?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on March 22?
18°C 40%
17°C 39%
19°C 14%
20°C 7.2%
$255,839 Vol.
$255,839 Vol.
11°C or below
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
1%
16°C
2%
17°C
39%
18°C
40%
19°C
14%
20°C
7%
21°C or higher
4%
18°C 40%
17°C 39%
19°C 14%
20°C 7.2%
$255,839 Vol.
$255,839 Vol.
11°C or below
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
1%
16°C
2%
17°C
39%
18°C
40%
19°C
14%
20°C
7%
21°C or higher
4%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 18, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 18°C (40.5%) and 17°C (35.5%) as Shanghai's highest temperature on March 22, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS model ensembles projecting peaks in the 17-18°C range amid mild southerly flows and partial cloud cover. Differentiating factors include solar insolation—fuller sunshine could push to 18°C via enhanced diurnal heating, while increased overcast from upstream moisture favors 17°C—and urban heat island amplification in Shanghai, which adds 1-2°C above rural baselines. Historical March 22 averages hover at 14-15°C, but recent warming trends and minimal cold air advection elevate odds; hourly observations from Pudong station will resolve precise maxima amid 1-2°C forecast uncertainty.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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