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Élection présidentielle en Guinée-Bissau

Market icon

Élection présidentielle en Guinée-Bissau

Fernando Dias da Costa 32.5%

Siga Batista 14.6%

Mamadu Iaia Djaló 13.9%

Gabriel Fernando Indi 6.4%

Polymarket

$282,559 Vol.

Fernando Dias da Costa 32.5%

Siga Batista 14.6%

Mamadu Iaia Djaló 13.9%

Gabriel Fernando Indi 6.4%

Polymarket

$282,559 Vol.

Fernando Dias da Costa

$32,599 Vol.

38%

Siga Batista

$19,649 Vol.

15%

Mamadu Iaia Djaló

$17,333 Vol.

14%

Gabriel Fernando Indi

$17,924 Vol.

6%

Baciro Djá

$13,688 Vol.

6%

Umaro Sissoco Embaló

$83,288 Vol.

6%

Titre d'élément du groupe : João de Deus Mendes

$15,592 Vol.

6%

Honório Augusto Lopes

$17,114 Vol.

6%

José Mário Vaz

$20,489 Vol.

5%

Herculano Armando Bequinsa

$14,443 Vol.

5%

João Bernardo Vieira

$14,230 Vol.

4%

Mário da Silva Júnior

$16,210 Vol.

4%

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).Trader consensus positions Fernando Dias da Costa as the frontrunner at 37.8% implied probability for Guinea-Bissau's December 6, 2026, presidential election, stemming from his status as the leading challenger in the annulled November 2025 vote, where both he and incumbent Umaro Sissoco Embaló claimed victory before a military coup destroyed results and prompted his asylum in Nigeria. Siga Batista at 14.6% and Mamadu Iaia Djaló at 13.9% reflect support among independents and party bases amid a fragmented field of over 10 candidates under the transitional junta's timetable set January 2026. No major developments have emerged since the African Union Peace and Security Council's March 4 briefing urging constitutional restoration, leaving odds driven by historical momentum, name recognition, and uncertainty over eligibility challenges or coalition dynamics in the two-round system.

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
Volume
$282,559
Date de fin
23 nov. 2025
Marché ouvert
Nov 6, 2025, 6:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).Trader consensus positions Fernando Dias da Costa as the frontrunner at 37.8% implied probability for Guinea-Bissau's December 6, 2026, presidential election, stemming from his status as the leading challenger in the annulled November 2025 vote, where both he and incumbent Umaro Sissoco Embaló claimed victory before a military coup destroyed results and prompted his asylum in Nigeria. Siga Batista at 14.6% and Mamadu Iaia Djaló at 13.9% reflect support among independents and party bases amid a fragmented field of over 10 candidates under the transitional junta's timetable set January 2026. No major developments have emerged since the African Union Peace and Security Council's March 4 briefing urging constitutional restoration, leaving odds driven by historical momentum, name recognition, and uncertainty over eligibility challenges or coalition dynamics in the two-round system.

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
Volume
$282,559
Date de fin
23 nov. 2025
Marché ouvert
Nov 6, 2025, 6:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).

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Questions fréquentes

« Élection présidentielle en Guinée-Bissau » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 12 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Fernando Dias da Costa » à 38%, suivi de « Siga Batista » à 15%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 38¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 38% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Élection présidentielle en Guinée-Bissau » a généré $282.6K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Nov 6, 2025. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Élection présidentielle en Guinée-Bissau », parcourez les 12 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Élection présidentielle en Guinée-Bissau » est « Fernando Dias da Costa » à 38%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 38% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Siga Batista » à 15%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Élection présidentielle en Guinée-Bissau » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.