In Georgia's 14th Congressional District special runoff election on April 7, trader consensus heavily favors Republican Clayton Fuller at 97% implied probability, reflecting the district's strong R+19 Cook PVI—the most Republican-leaning in Georgia—and his key endorsement from President Trump, which helped him secure second place with 35% in the March 10 nonpartisan primary despite Democrat Shawn Harris's 37% lead from a crowded 21-candidate field. GOP voters are expected to consolidate behind Fuller in this safe Republican seat vacated by Marjorie Taylor Greene, with early voting underway through April 2 showing low turnout so far. Upsets would require a major scandal, Trump endorsement withdrawal, or unexpected Democratic surge, though historical base rates in deep-red special elections make such shifts improbable.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourClayton Fuller 96.8%
Shawn Harris 3.5%
Colton Moore <1%
Chuck Hufstetler <1%
$227,682 Vol.
$227,682 Vol.
Clayton Fuller
97%
Shawn Harris
3%
Colton Moore
<1%
Chuck Hufstetler
<1%
Katie Dempsey
<1%
Jason Anavitarte
<1%
Jeff Criswell
<1%
Jennifer Strahan
<1%
Marcus Flowers
<1%
Tyler Paul Smith
<1%
Trey Kelley
<1%
Rob Ruszkowski
<1%
Holly McCormack
<1%
Brian Stover
<1%
John Cowan
<1%
Kasey Carpenter
<1%
Star Black
<1%
Laura Loomer
<1%
Elvis Casely
<1%
Martin Momtahan
<1%
Matt Barton
<1%
Uloma Ekpete Kama
<1%
Clarence Blalock
<1%
Eddie Lumsden
<1%
Clayton Fuller 96.8%
Shawn Harris 3.5%
Colton Moore <1%
Chuck Hufstetler <1%
$227,682 Vol.
$227,682 Vol.
Clayton Fuller
97%
Shawn Harris
3%
Colton Moore
<1%
Chuck Hufstetler
<1%
Katie Dempsey
<1%
Jason Anavitarte
<1%
Jeff Criswell
<1%
Jennifer Strahan
<1%
Marcus Flowers
<1%
Tyler Paul Smith
<1%
Trey Kelley
<1%
Rob Ruszkowski
<1%
Holly McCormack
<1%
Brian Stover
<1%
John Cowan
<1%
Kasey Carpenter
<1%
Star Black
<1%
Laura Loomer
<1%
Elvis Casely
<1%
Martin Momtahan
<1%
Matt Barton
<1%
Uloma Ekpete Kama
<1%
Clarence Blalock
<1%
Eddie Lumsden
<1%
This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.
If no winner is announced by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://sos.ga.gov/.
Marché ouvert : Nov 26, 2025, 1:47 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.
If no winner is announced by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://sos.ga.gov/.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...In Georgia's 14th Congressional District special runoff election on April 7, trader consensus heavily favors Republican Clayton Fuller at 97% implied probability, reflecting the district's strong R+19 Cook PVI—the most Republican-leaning in Georgia—and his key endorsement from President Trump, which helped him secure second place with 35% in the March 10 nonpartisan primary despite Democrat Shawn Harris's 37% lead from a crowded 21-candidate field. GOP voters are expected to consolidate behind Fuller in this safe Republican seat vacated by Marjorie Taylor Greene, with early voting underway through April 2 showing low turnout so far. Upsets would require a major scandal, Trump endorsement withdrawal, or unexpected Democratic surge, though historical base rates in deep-red special elections make such shifts improbable.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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