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Élections·Élections Mondiales

Vainqueur de l'élection partielle Dublin-Central

Market icon
Élections·Élections Mondiales

Vainqueur de l'élection partielle Dublin-Central

Daniel Ennis 77%

Janice Boylan 15.0%

Gerry Hutch 4.3%

Gillian Sherratt 1.3%

Polymarket

$687,559 Vol.

Daniel Ennis 77%

Janice Boylan 15.0%

Gerry Hutch 4.3%

Gillian Sherratt 1.3%

Polymarket

$687,559 Vol.

Daniel Ennis

$8,430 Vol.

77%

Janice Boylan

$3,853 Vol.

15%

Gerry Hutch

$492,387 Vol.

4%

Gillian Sherratt

$115,930 Vol.

1%

Malachy Steenson

$10,861 Vol.

1%

Janet Horner

$2,047 Vol.

1%

John Stephens

$40,811 Vol.

1%

Ray McAdam

$2,023 Vol.

1%

Mary Fitzpatrick

$2,460 Vol.

<1%

Ian Noel Smyth

$4,892 Vol.

<1%

Séamas McGrattan

$1,956 Vol.

<1%

Eoghan Ó Ceannabháin

$1,909 Vol.

<1%

A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).Trader consensus in the Dublin Central by-election heavily favors Social Democrats councillor Daniel Ennis at 76.5% implied probability, driven by reports of strong local canvassing reception in working-class areas like North Strand and Cabra, where his focus on housing reform, youth programs, and community cohesion resonates amid ongoing urban challenges including the 2023 riots' aftermath. Sinn Féin's Janice Boylan, selected in February, trails at 14.9% following her weak 2024 performance, while independent Gerry Hutch's populist anti-government campaign garners 4.3% despite his controversial background and recent bail refund from Spanish authorities. Final candidate announcements, including Fine Gael's Ray McAdam and Fianna Fáil's John Stephens on March 30, have solidified a competitive field of 12 ahead of the late-May PR-STV vote, with transfers likely pivotal in this diverse three-seat constituency's single vacancy.

Trader consensus in the Dublin Central by-election heavily favors Social Democrats councillor Daniel Ennis at 76.5% implied probability, driven by reports of strong local canvassing reception in working-class areas like North Strand and Cabra, where his focus on housing reform, youth programs, and community cohesion resonates amid ongoing urban challenges including the 2023 riots' aftermath. Sinn Féin's Janice Boylan, selected in February, trails at 14.9% following her weak 2024 performance, while independent Gerry Hutch's populist anti-government campaign garners 4.3% despite his controversial background and recent bail refund from Spanish authorities. Final candidate announcements, including Fine Gael's Ray McAdam and Fianna Fáil's John Stephens on March 30, have solidified a competitive field of 12 ahead of the late-May PR-STV vote, with transfers likely pivotal in this diverse three-seat constituency's single vacancy.

Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).Trader consensus in the Dublin Central by-election heavily favors Social Democrats councillor Daniel Ennis at 76.5% implied probability, driven by reports of strong local canvassing reception in working-class areas like North Strand and Cabra, where his focus on housing reform, youth programs, and community cohesion resonates amid ongoing urban challenges including the 2023 riots' aftermath. Sinn Féin's Janice Boylan, selected in February, trails at 14.9% following her weak 2024 performance, while independent Gerry Hutch's populist anti-government campaign garners 4.3% despite his controversial background and recent bail refund from Spanish authorities. Final candidate announcements, including Fine Gael's Ray McAdam and Fianna Fáil's John Stephens on March 30, have solidified a competitive field of 12 ahead of the late-May PR-STV vote, with transfers likely pivotal in this diverse three-seat constituency's single vacancy.

Trader consensus in the Dublin Central by-election heavily favors Social Democrats councillor Daniel Ennis at 76.5% implied probability, driven by reports of strong local canvassing reception in working-class areas like North Strand and Cabra, where his focus on housing reform, youth programs, and community cohesion resonates amid ongoing urban challenges including the 2023 riots' aftermath. Sinn Féin's Janice Boylan, selected in February, trails at 14.9% following her weak 2024 performance, while independent Gerry Hutch's populist anti-government campaign garners 4.3% despite his controversial background and recent bail refund from Spanish authorities. Final candidate announcements, including Fine Gael's Ray McAdam and Fianna Fáil's John Stephens on March 30, have solidified a competitive field of 12 ahead of the late-May PR-STV vote, with transfers likely pivotal in this diverse three-seat constituency's single vacancy.

Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour

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Questions fréquentes

« Vainqueur de l'élection partielle Dublin-Central » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 12 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Daniel Ennis » à 77%, suivi de « Janice Boylan » à 15%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 77¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 77% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Vainqueur de l'élection partielle Dublin-Central » a généré $687.6K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Feb 20, 2026. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Vainqueur de l'élection partielle Dublin-Central », parcourez les 12 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Vainqueur de l'élection partielle Dublin-Central » est « Daniel Ennis » à 77%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 77% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Janice Boylan » à 15%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Vainqueur de l'élection partielle Dublin-Central » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.