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Élections·Moyen-Orient

Vainqueur de l'élection parlementaire libanaise

Market icon
Élections·Moyen-Orient

Vainqueur de l'élection parlementaire libanaise

Forces libanaises (FL) 14%

Parti socialiste arabe Baas au Liban (Baas) 6.5%

Hezbollah (Hezb) 2.4%

Mouvement Amal (Amal) 1.8%

Polymarket

$162,023 Vol.

Forces libanaises (FL) 14%

Parti socialiste arabe Baas au Liban (Baas) 6.5%

Hezbollah (Hezb) 2.4%

Mouvement Amal (Amal) 1.8%

Polymarket

$162,023 Vol.

Forces libanaises (FL)

$135,344 Vol.

14%

Parti socialiste arabe Baas au Liban (Baas)

$0 Vol.

7%

Hezbollah (Hezb)

$0 Vol.

2%

Mouvement Amal (Amal)

$26,680 Vol.

2%

Parti Taqaddom

$0 Vol.

2%

ReLebanon

$0 Vol.

1%

Mouvement de la Dignité (DM)

$0 Vol.

1%

Association des projets islamiques caritatifs (APIC)

$0 Vol.

1%

Parti Kataeb (Kataeb)

$0 Vol.

1%

Parti révolutionnaire arménien (PRA)

$0 Vol.

1%

Parti socialiste progressiste (PSP)

$0 Vol.

1%

Mouvement de l'Indépendance (IM)

$0 Vol.

1%

Mouvement patriotique libre (CPL)

$0 Vol.

<1%

Parti de l'Union (UP)

$0 Vol.

<1%

Mouvement Marada (MM)

$0 Vol.

<1%

Parti national libéral (PNL)

$0 Vol.

<1%

Mouvement nassérien populaire (PNO)

$0 Vol.

<1%

Lana – Parti social-démocrate (Lana)

$0 Vol.

<1%

Coalition Watani (Watani)

$0 Vol.

<1%

Groupe islamique (IG)

$0 Vol.

<1%

Khatt Ahmar

$0 Vol.

<1%

Parti du Dialogue National (PDN)

$0 Vol.

<1%

Parti Mada (Mada)

$0 Vol.

<1%

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.The fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria on December 8 has disrupted longstanding alliances for pro-Syria parties like the Arab Socialist Ba'ath Party and Hezbollah, eroding their influence and elevating trader consensus around the Lebanese Forces (LF) as the fragmented frontrunner for most seats in Lebanon's next parliamentary election. Hezbollah's losses in the Israel conflict, culminating in the November 27 ceasefire, have further weakened Shia militias, boosting LF's appeal among Christian voters and sovereignty advocates opposed to armed groups. In the confessional system allocating seats by sect, LF differentiates via its anti-Hezbollah stance and parliamentary strength, while Ba'ath lags despite secular appeals amid Syria's upheaval. Consolidation could hinge on presidential election progress, coalition talks, or economic stabilization, keeping the field wide-open ahead of polls due by 2026.

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).

Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Volume
$162,023
Date de fin
May 31, 2026
Marché ouvert
Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.The fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria on December 8 has disrupted longstanding alliances for pro-Syria parties like the Arab Socialist Ba'ath Party and Hezbollah, eroding their influence and elevating trader consensus around the Lebanese Forces (LF) as the fragmented frontrunner for most seats in Lebanon's next parliamentary election. Hezbollah's losses in the Israel conflict, culminating in the November 27 ceasefire, have further weakened Shia militias, boosting LF's appeal among Christian voters and sovereignty advocates opposed to armed groups. In the confessional system allocating seats by sect, LF differentiates via its anti-Hezbollah stance and parliamentary strength, while Ba'ath lags despite secular appeals amid Syria's upheaval. Consolidation could hinge on presidential election progress, coalition talks, or economic stabilization, keeping the field wide-open ahead of polls due by 2026.

The fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria on December 8 has disrupted longstanding alliances for pro-Syria parties like the Arab Socialist Ba'ath Party and Hezbollah, eroding their influence and elevating trader consensus around the Lebanese Forces (LF) as the fragmented frontrunner for most seats in Lebanon's next parliamentary election. Hezbollah's losses in the Israel conflict, culminating in the November 27 ceasefire, have further weakened Shia militias, boosting LF's appeal among Christian voters and sovereignty advocates opposed to armed groups. In the confessional system allocating seats by sect, LF differentiates via its anti-Hezbollah stance and parliamentary strength, while Ba'ath lags despite secular appeals amid Syria's upheaval. Consolidation could hinge on presidential election progress, coalition talks, or economic stabilization, keeping the field wide-open ahead of polls due by 2026.

Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour

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Questions fréquentes

« Vainqueur de l'élection parlementaire libanaise » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 23 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Forces libanaises (FL) » à 14%, suivi de « Parti socialiste arabe Baas au Liban (Baas) » à 7%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 14¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 14% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Vainqueur de l'élection parlementaire libanaise » a généré $162K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Jan 6, 2026. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Vainqueur de l'élection parlementaire libanaise », parcourez les 23 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Vainqueur de l'élection parlementaire libanaise » est « Forces libanaises (FL) » à 14%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 14% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Parti socialiste arabe Baas au Liban (Baas) » à 7%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Vainqueur de l'élection parlementaire libanaise » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.