Incumbent Rep. Kevin Mullin (D) anchors trader consensus at 94.5% implied probability for a Democratic Party win in California's 15th Congressional District, a D+26 partisan voter index stronghold in the Bay Area covering most of San Mateo County. Mullin's 73.1% 2024 victory margin and $545,000 in early fundraising underscore his dominance ahead of the June 2 top-two primary, where challengers include Democrats Anthony Dang and Mantosh Kumar, Republican Charles Hoelter, and no-party-preference Jim Garrity. Ratings from Cook Political Report (Solid Democratic), Sabato's Crystal Ball (Safe Democratic), and Inside Elections reinforce the outlook. A top-two matchup likely pits two Democrats, ensuring party control; even against Hoelter, the district's blue lean poses steep barriers. Shifts could arise from a Mullin scandal, health issue, or extraordinary national Republican wave, though none appear imminent post-filing deadline.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourVainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre CA-15
Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre CA-15
$37,892 Vol.
$37,892 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Parti démocrate
95%
Parti républicain
4%
$37,892 Vol.
$37,892 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Parti démocrate
$28,696 Vol.
95%
Parti républicain
$9,196 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Kevin Mullin (D) anchors trader consensus at 94.5% implied probability for a Democratic Party win in California's 15th Congressional District, a D+26 partisan voter index stronghold in the Bay Area covering most of San Mateo County. Mullin's 73.1% 2024 victory margin and $545,000 in early fundraising underscore his dominance ahead of the June 2 top-two primary, where challengers include Democrats Anthony Dang and Mantosh Kumar, Republican Charles Hoelter, and no-party-preference Jim Garrity. Ratings from Cook Political Report (Solid Democratic), Sabato's Crystal Ball (Safe Democratic), and Inside Elections reinforce the outlook. A top-two matchup likely pits two Democrats, ensuring party control; even against Hoelter, the district's blue lean poses steep barriers. Shifts could arise from a Mullin scandal, health issue, or extraordinary national Republican wave, though none appear imminent post-filing deadline.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Volume
$37,892Date de fin
Nov 3, 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Kevin Mullin (D) anchors trader consensus at 94.5% implied probability for a Democratic Party win in California's 15th Congressional District, a D+26 partisan voter index stronghold in the Bay Area covering most of San Mateo County. Mullin's 73.1% 2024 victory margin and $545,000 in early fundraising underscore his dominance ahead of the June 2 top-two primary, where challengers include Democrats Anthony Dang and Mantosh Kumar, Republican Charles Hoelter, and no-party-preference Jim Garrity. Ratings from Cook Political Report (Solid Democratic), Sabato's Crystal Ball (Safe Democratic), and Inside Elections reinforce the outlook. A top-two matchup likely pits two Democrats, ensuring party control; even against Hoelter, the district's blue lean poses steep barriers. Shifts could arise from a Mullin scandal, health issue, or extraordinary national Republican wave, though none appear imminent post-filing deadline.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$37,892Date de fin
Nov 3, 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Kevin Mullin (D) anchors trader consensus at 94.5% implied probability for a Democratic Party win in California's 15th Congressional District, a D+26 partisan voter index stronghold in the Bay Area covering most of San Mateo County. Mullin's 73.1% 2024 victory margin and $545,000 in early fundraising underscore his dominance ahead of the June 2 top-two primary, where challengers include Democrats Anthony Dang and Mantosh Kumar, Republican Charles Hoelter, and no-party-preference Jim Garrity. Ratings from Cook Political Report (Solid Democratic), Sabato's Crystal Ball (Safe Democratic), and Inside Elections reinforce the outlook. A top-two matchup likely pits two Democrats, ensuring party control; even against Hoelter, the district's blue lean poses steep barriers. Shifts could arise from a Mullin scandal, health issue, or extraordinary national Republican wave, though none appear imminent post-filing deadline.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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