Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to no change in the Bank of Canada's policy rate at its March 12 meeting, driven by sticky core inflation and resilient economic indicators that reduce urgency for further easing. Headline CPI eased to 1.9% in December 2024, but core measures hovered above 2.5%, while unemployment held steady at 6.6% and wage growth exceeded 4%, signaling persistent price pressures amid a soft landing. Recent 75 basis points of cuts since June have calibrated policy without overheating, aligning with Governor Macklem's cautious rhetoric. Challenges include a sharper-than-expected GDP slowdown or sub-2% core inflation print, potentially shifting odds toward a 25 bps cut if growth falters.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourDécision de la Banque du Canada en mars ?
Décision de la Banque du Canada en mars ?
Aucun changement 100.0%
Baisse de plus de 50 points de base <1%
Baisse de 25 points de base <1%
Augmentation <1%
$64,938 Vol.
$64,938 Vol.
18 mars 2026
Baisse de plus de 50 points de base
Non
Baisse de 25 points de base
Non
Aucun changement
Oui
Augmentation
Non
Aucun changement 100.0%
Baisse de plus de 50 points de base <1%
Baisse de 25 points de base <1%
Augmentation <1%
$64,938 Vol.
$64,938 Vol.
18 mars 2026
Baisse de plus de 50 points de base
$0 Vol.
Non
Baisse de 25 points de base
$64,938 Vol.
Non
Aucun changement
$0 Vol.
Oui
Augmentation
$0 Vol.
Non
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's March 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its March 18, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their March meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to no change in the Bank of Canada's policy rate at its March 12 meeting, driven by sticky core inflation and resilient economic indicators that reduce urgency for further easing. Headline CPI eased to 1.9% in December 2024, but core measures hovered above 2.5%, while unemployment held steady at 6.6% and wage growth exceeded 4%, signaling persistent price pressures amid a soft landing. Recent 75 basis points of cuts since June have calibrated policy without overheating, aligning with Governor Macklem's cautious rhetoric. Challenges include a sharper-than-expected GDP slowdown or sub-2% core inflation print, potentially shifting odds toward a 25 bps cut if growth falters.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's March 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its March 18, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their March meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its March 18, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their March meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Marché ouvert : Dec 23, 2025, 5:42 PM ET
Volume
$64,938Date de fin
18 mars 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 23, 2025, 5:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's March 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its March 18, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their March meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to no change in the Bank of Canada's policy rate at its March 12 meeting, driven by sticky core inflation and resilient economic indicators that reduce urgency for further easing. Headline CPI eased to 1.9% in December 2024, but core measures hovered above 2.5%, while unemployment held steady at 6.6% and wage growth exceeded 4%, signaling persistent price pressures amid a soft landing. Recent 75 basis points of cuts since June have calibrated policy without overheating, aligning with Governor Macklem's cautious rhetoric. Challenges include a sharper-than-expected GDP slowdown or sub-2% core inflation print, potentially shifting odds toward a 25 bps cut if growth falters.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's March 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its March 18, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their March meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its March 18, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their March meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$64,938Date de fin
18 mars 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 23, 2025, 5:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to no change in the Bank of Canada's policy rate at its March 12 meeting, driven by sticky core inflation and resilient economic indicators that reduce urgency for further easing. Headline CPI eased to 1.9% in December 2024, but core measures hovered above 2.5%, while unemployment held steady at 6.6% and wage growth exceeded 4%, signaling persistent price pressures amid a soft landing. Recent 75 basis points of cuts since June have calibrated policy without overheating, aligning with Governor Macklem's cautious rhetoric. Challenges include a sharper-than-expected GDP slowdown or sub-2% core inflation print, potentially shifting odds toward a 25 bps cut if growth falters.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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