$31,396 Vol.
$31,396 Vol.
Dec 31, 2025
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. weighted average tariff, as defined and reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, reaches 5% or greater for any quarter of 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve once the dataset has been updated to reflect data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Advance Estimate GDP report for Q4. If no Advance Estimate GDP report for Q4 2025 is released by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, specifically the the average tariff paid as defined here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1wn5e. Revisions to the data made after the resolution will not be considered.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. weighted average tariff, as defined and reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, reaches 5% or greater for any quarter of 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve once the dataset has been updated to reflect data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Advance Estimate GDP report for Q4. If no Advance Estimate GDP report for Q4 2025 is released by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, specifically the the average tariff paid as defined here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1wn5e. Revisions to the data made after the resolution will not be considered.
This market will resolve once the dataset has been updated to reflect data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Advance Estimate GDP report for Q4. If no Advance Estimate GDP report for Q4 2025 is released by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, specifically the the average tariff paid as defined here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1wn5e. Revisions to the data made after the resolution will not be considered.
Created At: Apr 10, 2025, 8:16 PM ET
Volume
$31,396End Date
Dec 31, 2025Created At
Apr 10, 2025, 8:16 PM ETResolver
0x6A9D22261...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
$31,396 Vol.
$31,396 Vol.
Dec 31, 2025
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. weighted average tariff, as defined and reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, reaches 5% or greater for any quarter of 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve once the dataset has been updated to reflect data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Advance Estimate GDP report for Q4. If no Advance Estimate GDP report for Q4 2025 is released by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, specifically the the average tariff paid as defined here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1wn5e. Revisions to the data made after the resolution will not be considered.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. weighted average tariff, as defined and reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, reaches 5% or greater for any quarter of 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve once the dataset has been updated to reflect data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Advance Estimate GDP report for Q4. If no Advance Estimate GDP report for Q4 2025 is released by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, specifically the the average tariff paid as defined here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1wn5e. Revisions to the data made after the resolution will not be considered.
This market will resolve once the dataset has been updated to reflect data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Advance Estimate GDP report for Q4. If no Advance Estimate GDP report for Q4 2025 is released by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, specifically the the average tariff paid as defined here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1wn5e. Revisions to the data made after the resolution will not be considered.
Volume
$31,396End Date
Dec 31, 2025Created At
Apr 10, 2025, 8:16 PM ETResolver
0x6A9D22261...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions
"Will Trump impose large tariffs in 2025?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 100% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 100¢, the market collectively assigns a 100% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.
As of today, "Will Trump impose large tariffs in 2025?" has generated $31.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.
To trade on "Will Trump impose large tariffs in 2025?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.
The current probability for "Will Trump impose large tariffs in 2025?" is 100% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 100% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.
The resolution rules for "Will Trump impose large tariffs in 2025?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions