This market will resolve to “Yes” if National Guard troops are called to active duty under state control in any part of Minnesota by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No.”

A qualifying activation announcement or action will count, regardless of if/when deployment of the National Guard actually occurs, or if the activation/deployment is subsequently blocked by judicial or other actions.

Qualifying actions include but are not limited to:

- An official announcement from the Minnesota Government that specific state Guard units are being or will be activated, deployed, or mobilized within Minnesota under state control.
- A formal activation by Tim Walz calling National Guard troops to State Active Duty (State control and funding) in Minnesota.
- An official federal or state activation of National Guard troops to any other form of active duty in Minnesota under state control (e.g. activation under title 32 - state control with federal funding).

Non-qualifying actions include but are not limited to:

- Any federal government action that calls up, assigns, or announces the activation or deployment of National Guard forces to Minnesota under federal command and control, including under Title 10 (federalized control and funding).
- Informal announcements/social media posts which do not constitute a formal policy announcement.
- Ambiguous remarks, “we’re considering it,” broad statements like “ready to go anywhere,” or contingent plans without a clear directive to Minnesota.
- Routine training, including inactive duty or annual training, or announcements/actions of preparation or planning which do not activate or announce the activation of National Guard troops to active duty.
- Generic posture changes (e.g., standing up quick-reaction forces “nationwide”) that do not explicitly name Minnesota as an activation location.

The primary resolution sources will be official information from the state government of Minnesota and a consensus of credible reporting.