**Ongoing federal scrutiny of large-scale fraud in Minnesota's welfare and Medicaid programs under Governor Tim Walz has kept the market active, yet trader probabilities remain low because no criminal charges have been filed against him personally.** Congressional oversight committees, Treasury, CMS, and SBA investigations continue to examine whether state officials delayed action on red flags or impeded accountability, following referrals from figures like JD Vance. A federal judge previously quashed related DOJ subpoenas, ruling aspects politically motivated rather than legitimate probes. Walz has publicly accepted responsibility for oversight failures while distinguishing them from personal corruption and stepping aside from reelection. Upcoming congressional hearings, audits, and any new indictments tied to the scandals represent the main near-term catalysts that could shift implied probabilities before year-end resolution windows.