Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Market icon

Will the U.S. take over Gaza in 2025?

Market icon

Will the U.S. take over Gaza in 2025?

<1% chance
Polymarket

$670,059 Vol.

<1% chance
Polymarket

$670,059 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government assumes administrative, military, or political control over the Gaza Strip by December 31, 2025 11:59 PM ET.

This includes direct governance, military occupation with administrative authority, or any formal arrangement where the U.S. exercises primary governing authority over Gaza territory.

Mere military presence including the establishment of bases, advisory roles, humanitarian missions, or support for other governing entities without the U.S. holding primary control will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$670,059
End Date
Dec 31, 2025
Market Opened
Feb 4, 2025, 8:57 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government assumes administrative, military, or political control over the Gaza Strip by December 31, 2025 11:59 PM ET. This includes direct governance, military occupation with administrative authority, or any formal arrangement where the U.S. exercises primary governing authority over Gaza territory. Mere military presence including the establishment of bases, advisory roles, humanitarian missions, or support for other governing entities without the U.S. holding primary control will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government assumes administrative, military, or political control over the Gaza Strip by December 31, 2025 11:59 PM ET.

This includes direct governance, military occupation with administrative authority, or any formal arrangement where the U.S. exercises primary governing authority over Gaza territory.

Mere military presence including the establishment of bases, advisory roles, humanitarian missions, or support for other governing entities without the U.S. holding primary control will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$670,059
End Date
Dec 31, 2025
Market Opened
Feb 4, 2025, 8:57 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government assumes administrative, military, or political control over the Gaza Strip by December 31, 2025 11:59 PM ET. This includes direct governance, military occupation with administrative authority, or any formal arrangement where the U.S. exercises primary governing authority over Gaza territory. Mere military presence including the establishment of bases, advisory roles, humanitarian missions, or support for other governing entities without the U.S. holding primary control will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Will the U.S. take over Gaza in 2025?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 0% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 0¢, the market collectively assigns a 0% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will the U.S. take over Gaza in 2025?" has generated $670.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will the U.S. take over Gaza in 2025?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will the U.S. take over Gaza in 2025?" is 0% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 0% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will the U.S. take over Gaza in 2025?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.