Russian forces have sustained localized assaults and infiltration attempts northeast of Velykyi Burluk in Kharkiv Oblast's Kupyansk sector since late 2025, aiming at villages including Khatnie, but Institute for the Study of War mapping shows no confirmed territorial control of the village as of mid-2026. Ukrainian defensive reinforcements and counterattacks have limited Russian progress amid broader patterns of slower advance rates across the front. No large-scale troop surges, equipment shifts, or diplomatic breakthroughs altering the local balance have occurred in recent weeks, keeping implied probabilities of near-term capture low among traders. Resolution hinges on verifiable map updates through the specified deadline, with ongoing ground operations the primary variable that could shift positioning.