Russian forces have conducted repeated strikes and ground probes near Velykyi Burluk in Kharkiv Oblast targeting the village of Khatnie as part of efforts to expand control and establish a buffer zone along the border, yet Institute for the Study of War assessments through spring 2026 showed no confirmed Russian advances, infiltration, or territorial gains into the village itself. Trader consensus on related contracts has priced the probability of entry by late-spring deadlines in the low teens to around 20 percent, reflecting the slow operational tempo, Ukrainian defensive reinforcements, and lack of rapid breakthroughs observed in prior phases of the northeastern front. Diplomatic or negotiated outcomes granting de jure control could also trigger resolution to yes under market rules, though no such developments have materialized. Ongoing artillery and air activity in the sector continues to shape assessments of incremental pressure, while broader Kharkiv Oblast dynamics and seasonal factors influence the pace of any potential shifts before later resolution windows.