Will OpenAI release an open source model in 2025?
$315,151 Vol.
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI publicly releases the weights of a reasoning model (e.g., o1, o3) or a large language model (LLM) that is as advanced as GPT-3 by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Multimodal models (e.g., DALL·E, vision-language models), speech or audio-based models (e.g., Whisper), specialized AI agents or reinforcement learning models (e.g., robotics, AlphaCode-like systems) or models that otherwise do not meet the listed criteria will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Multimodal models (e.g., DALL·E, vision-language models), speech or audio-based models (e.g., Whisper), specialized AI agents or reinforcement learning models (e.g., robotics, AlphaCode-like systems) or models that otherwise do not meet the listed criteria will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$315,151
End Date
Dec 31, 2025
Resolver
0x6A9D22261...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
$315,151 Vol.
Will OpenAI release an open source model in 2025?
About
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI publicly releases the weights of a reasoning model (e.g., o1, o3) or a large language model (LLM) that is as advanced as GPT-3 by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Multimodal models (e.g., DALL·E, vision-language models), speech or audio-based models (e.g., Whisper), specialized AI agents or reinforcement learning models (e.g., robotics, AlphaCode-like systems) or models that otherwise do not meet the listed criteria will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Multimodal models (e.g., DALL·E, vision-language models), speech or audio-based models (e.g., Whisper), specialized AI agents or reinforcement learning models (e.g., robotics, AlphaCode-like systems) or models that otherwise do not meet the listed criteria will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$315,151
End Date
Dec 31, 2025
Resolver
0x6A9D22261...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.