Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Will Israel strike Lebanon on...?

Name: Will Israel strike Lebanon on...?
Start: 2025-12-31T00:00:00.000Z
End: 2025-12-31T00:00:00.000Z

Ended: Dec 31, 2025

Feb 28

$9,121,450 Vol.

Nov 5, 2025

October 29
$24,426 Vol.
No

October 30
$66,799 Vol.
Yes

October 31
$57,545 Vol.
Yes

November 1
$228,007 Vol.
Yes

November 2
$152,234 Vol.
Yes

November 3
$83,226 Vol.
Yes

November 4
$728,964 Vol.
No

November 5
$189,996 Vol.
Yes

November 6
$163,961 Vol.
Yes

November 7
$69,807 Vol.
No

November 8
$133,642 Vol.
Yes

November 9
$254,973 Vol.
Yes

November 10
$168,198 Vol.
Yes

November 11
$105,391 Vol.
No

November 12
$41,620 Vol.
No

November 13
$128,822 Vol.
Yes

November 14
$40,611 Vol.
No

November 15
$25,567 Vol.
No

November 16
$98,133 Vol.
Yes

November 17
$80,522 Vol.
No

November 18
$85,260 Vol.
Yes

November 19
$96,908 Vol.
Yes

November 20
$49,142 Vol.
No

November 21
$72,916 Vol.
Yes

November 22
$88,793 Vol.
Yes

November 23
$53,984 Vol.
Yes

November 24
$41,324 Vol.
No

November 25
$16,646 Vol.
No

November 26
$36,978 Vol.
No

November 27
$18,887 Vol.
Yes

November 28
$45,758 Vol.
No

November 29
$30,122 Vol.
No

November 30
$20,350 Vol.
No

December 1
$16,399 Vol.
No

December 2
$28,740 Vol.
No

December 3
$22,529 Vol.
No

December 4
$129,893 Vol.
Yes

December 5
$61,486 Vol.
No

December 6
$32,733 Vol.
No

December 7
$43,531 Vol.
No

December 8
$4,021,935 Vol.
Yes

December 9
$118,320 Vol.
No

December 10
$30,550 Vol.
No

December 11
$16,645 Vol.
No

December 12
$23,012 Vol.
Yes

December 13
$84,378 Vol.
No

December 14
$101,053 Vol.
Yes

December 15
$21,960 Vol.
No

December 16
$55,553 Vol.
Yes

December 17
$59,674 Vol.
No

December 18
$34,253 Vol.
Yes

December 19
$28,701 Vol.
No

December 20
$126,380 Vol.
No

December 21
$122,833 Vol.
Yes

December 22
$122,462 Vol.
Yes

December 23
$53,755 Vol.
No

December 24
$73,248 Vol.
Yes

December 25
$29,586 Vol.
Yes

December 26
$17,189 Vol.
Yes

December 27
$39,594 Vol.
No

December 28
$19,989 Vol.
No

December 29
$28,354 Vol.
No

December 30
$28,941 Vol.
No

December 31
$28,263 Vol.
No

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Lebanese soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Lebanon ground territory. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Lebanon counts, including buffer zones. Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Lebanon territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

Beware of external links.

Will Israel strike Lebanon on...?

Ended: Dec 31, 2025

Feb 28

$9,121,450 Vol.

October 29

$24,426 Vol.

October 30

$66,799 Vol.

Yes

October 31

$57,545 Vol.

Yes

November 1

$228,007 Vol.

Yes

November 2

$152,234 Vol.

Yes

November 3

$83,226 Vol.

Yes

November 4

$728,964 Vol.

November 5

$189,996 Vol.

Yes

November 6

$163,961 Vol.

Yes

November 7

$69,807 Vol.

November 8

$133,642 Vol.

Yes

November 9

$254,973 Vol.

Yes

November 10

$168,198 Vol.

Yes

November 11

$105,391 Vol.

November 12

$41,620 Vol.

November 13

$128,822 Vol.

Yes

November 14

$40,611 Vol.

November 15

$25,567 Vol.

November 16

$98,133 Vol.

Yes

November 17

$80,522 Vol.

November 18

$85,260 Vol.

Yes

November 19

$96,908 Vol.

Yes

November 20

$49,142 Vol.

November 21

$72,916 Vol.

Yes

November 22

$88,793 Vol.

Yes

November 23

$53,984 Vol.

Yes

November 24

$41,324 Vol.

November 25

$16,646 Vol.

November 26

$36,978 Vol.

November 27

$18,887 Vol.

Yes

November 28

$45,758 Vol.

November 29

$30,122 Vol.

November 30

$20,350 Vol.

December 1

$16,399 Vol.

December 2

$28,740 Vol.

December 3

$22,529 Vol.

December 4

$129,893 Vol.

Yes

December 5

$61,486 Vol.

December 6

$32,733 Vol.

December 7

$43,531 Vol.

December 8

$4,021,935 Vol.

Yes

December 9

$118,320 Vol.

December 10

$30,550 Vol.

December 11

$16,645 Vol.

December 12

$23,012 Vol.

Yes

December 13

$84,378 Vol.

December 14

$101,053 Vol.

Yes

December 15

$21,960 Vol.

December 16

$55,553 Vol.

Yes

December 17

$59,674 Vol.

December 18

$34,253 Vol.

Yes

December 19

$28,701 Vol.

December 20

$126,380 Vol.

December 21

$122,833 Vol.

Yes

December 22

$122,462 Vol.

Yes

December 23

$53,755 Vol.

December 24

$73,248 Vol.

Yes

December 25

$29,586 Vol.

Yes

December 26

$17,189 Vol.

Yes

December 27

$39,594 Vol.

December 28

$19,989 Vol.

December 29

$28,354 Vol.

December 30

$28,941 Vol.

December 31

$28,263 Vol.

About

Volume

$9,121,450

End Date

Dec 31, 2025

Created At

Oct 28, 2025, 10:05 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by March 31, 2026?

38%

Iran Strike on Israel by February 28?

28%

Will US or Israel strike Iran by December 31, 2026?

70%

Beware of external links.

Will Israel strike Lebanon on...?

October 29$24,426 Vol.No

October 30$66,799 Vol.Yes

October 31$57,545 Vol.Yes

November 1$228,007 Vol.Yes

November 2$152,234 Vol.Yes

November 3$83,226 Vol.Yes

November 4$728,964 Vol.No

November 5$189,996 Vol.Yes

November 6$163,961 Vol.Yes

November 7$69,807 Vol.No

November 8$133,642 Vol.Yes

November 9$254,973 Vol.Yes

November 10$168,198 Vol.Yes

November 11$105,391 Vol.No

November 12$41,620 Vol.No

November 13$128,822 Vol.Yes

November 14$40,611 Vol.No

November 15$25,567 Vol.No

November 16$98,133 Vol.Yes

November 17$80,522 Vol.No

November 18$85,260 Vol.Yes

November 19$96,908 Vol.Yes

November 20$49,142 Vol.No

November 21$72,916 Vol.Yes

November 22$88,793 Vol.Yes

November 23$53,984 Vol.Yes

November 24$41,324 Vol.No

November 25$16,646 Vol.No

November 26$36,978 Vol.No

November 27$18,887 Vol.Yes

November 28$45,758 Vol.No

November 29$30,122 Vol.No

November 30$20,350 Vol.No

December 1$16,399 Vol.No

December 2$28,740 Vol.No

December 3$22,529 Vol.No

December 4$129,893 Vol.Yes

December 5$61,486 Vol.No

December 6$32,733 Vol.No

December 7$43,531 Vol.No

December 8$4,021,935 Vol.Yes

December 9$118,320 Vol.No

December 10$30,550 Vol.No

December 11$16,645 Vol.No

December 12$23,012 Vol.Yes

December 13$84,378 Vol.No

December 14$101,053 Vol.Yes

December 15$21,960 Vol.No

December 16$55,553 Vol.Yes

December 17$59,674 Vol.No

December 18$34,253 Vol.Yes

December 19$28,701 Vol.No

December 20$126,380 Vol.No

December 21$122,833 Vol.Yes

December 22$122,462 Vol.Yes

December 23$53,755 Vol.No

December 24$73,248 Vol.Yes

December 25$29,586 Vol.Yes

December 26$17,189 Vol.Yes

December 27$39,594 Vol.No

December 28$19,989 Vol.No

December 29$28,354 Vol.No

December 30$28,941 Vol.No

December 31$28,263 Vol.No

Market Context