Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Note: As with all markets currently displayed on Polymarket, there are no fees on this market.

Market icon

Will Israel strike Gaza on...?

$6,929,664 Vol.

Nov 7, 2025

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Gaza soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Gaza ground territory.

A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip counts, including buffer zones.

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Gaza territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.

The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.

If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$6,929,664
End Date
Dec 31, 2025
Created At
Oct 28, 2025, 10:05 PM ET

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

Beware of external links.

Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Note: As with all markets currently displayed on Polymarket, there are no fees on this market.

Market icon

Will Israel strike Gaza on...?

$6,929,664 Vol.

October 30

$77,645 Vol.

Yes

October 31

$153,814 Vol.

No

November 1

$77,419 Vol.

No

November 2

$104,552 Vol.

Yes

November 3

$79,019 Vol.

Yes

November 4

$126,778 Vol.

Yes

November 5

$203,702 Vol.

No

November 6

$49,111 Vol.

No

November 7

$35,457 Vol.

No

November 8

$15,571 Vol.

Yes

November 9

$1,280,816 Vol.

No

November 10

$61,561 Vol.

Yes

November 11

$29,870 Vol.

No

November 12

$92,584 Vol.

Yes

November 13

$54,020 Vol.

No

November 14

$45,955 Vol.

No

November 15

$42,589 Vol.

No

November 16

$83,132 Vol.

Yes

November 17

$87,333 Vol.

Yes

November 18

$85,671 Vol.

No

November 19

$44,963 Vol.

Yes

November 20

$54,782 Vol.

Yes

November 21

$26,088 Vol.

Yes

November 22

$21,268 Vol.

Yes

November 23

$30,534 Vol.

No

November 24

$14,365 Vol.

Yes

November 25

$59,307 Vol.

No

November 26

$53,317 Vol.

Yes

November 27

$33,245 Vol.

No

November 28

$12,086 Vol.

Yes

November 29

$11,476 Vol.

Yes

November 30

$1,857,452 Vol.

No

December 1

$62,509 Vol.

Yes

December 2

$106,063 Vol.

Yes

December 3

$147,719 Vol.

Yes

December 4

$85,586 Vol.

No

December 5

$71,822 Vol.

Yes

December 6

$139,818 Vol.

No

December 7

$60,961 Vol.

No

December 8

$131,667 Vol.

Yes

December 9

$57,324 Vol.

No

December 10

$35,639 Vol.

No

December 11

$31,527 Vol.

No

December 12

$18,538 Vol.

No

December 13

$15,811 Vol.

Yes

December 14

$44,676 Vol.

No

December 15

$15,593 Vol.

No

December 16

$19,598 Vol.

No

December 17

$54,038 Vol.

No

December 18

$20,785 Vol.

Yes

December 19

$18,414 Vol.

Yes

December 20

$156,923 Vol.

Yes

December 21

$95,642 Vol.

Yes

December 22

$103,890 Vol.

No

December 23

$42,350 Vol.

No

December 24

$79,828 Vol.

No

December 25

$97,271 Vol.

Yes

December 26

$90,936 Vol.

No

December 27

$29,623 Vol.

No

December 28

$19,861 Vol.

No

December 29

$18,062 Vol.

No

December 30

$23,206 Vol.

No

December 31

$28,504 Vol.

No

About

Volume
$6,929,664
End Date
Dec 31, 2025
Created At
Oct 28, 2025, 10:05 PM ET

Beware of external links.