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Politics·Gaza

Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by March 31?

Market icon
Politics·Gaza

Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by March 31?

Jan 1

Jan 1

Jan 1

Jan 1

<1% chance
Polymarket

$202,822 Vol.

<1% chance
Polymarket

$202,822 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already apart of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by March 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count. The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.With the March 31 deadline hours away, traders' 99.1% consensus on "No" stems from no official announcements, bilateral pacts, or diplomatic breakthroughs signaling a new country's formal accession to the Abraham Accords, despite President Trump's recent public appeals at the FII Priority Summit for Saudi Arabia to normalize ties with Israel amid the Iran conflict. Discussions with prospects like Saudi Arabia, Oman, or Syria persist but lack finalized agreements, which historically involve summits, treaties, and U.S. mediation taking weeks amid regional tensions. Only a surprise last-minute declaration—unlikely without prior leaks—could resolve "Yes," underscoring the accords' expansion challenges in volatile geopolitics.

With the March 31 deadline hours away, traders' 99.1% consensus on "No" stems from no official announcements, bilateral pacts, or diplomatic breakthroughs signaling a new country's formal accession to the Abraham Accords, despite President Trump's recent public appeals at the FII Priority Summit for Saudi Arabia to normalize ties with Israel amid the Iran conflict. Discussions with prospects like Saudi Arabia, Oman, or Syria persist but lack finalized agreements, which historically involve summits, treaties, and U.S. mediation taking weeks amid regional tensions. Only a surprise last-minute declaration—unlikely without prior leaks—could resolve "Yes," underscoring the accords' expansion challenges in volatile geopolitics.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already apart of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by March 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count. The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.With the March 31 deadline hours away, traders' 99.1% consensus on "No" stems from no official announcements, bilateral pacts, or diplomatic breakthroughs signaling a new country's formal accession to the Abraham Accords, despite President Trump's recent public appeals at the FII Priority Summit for Saudi Arabia to normalize ties with Israel amid the Iran conflict. Discussions with prospects like Saudi Arabia, Oman, or Syria persist but lack finalized agreements, which historically involve summits, treaties, and U.S. mediation taking weeks amid regional tensions. Only a surprise last-minute declaration—unlikely without prior leaks—could resolve "Yes," underscoring the accords' expansion challenges in volatile geopolitics.

With the March 31 deadline hours away, traders' 99.1% consensus on "No" stems from no official announcements, bilateral pacts, or diplomatic breakthroughs signaling a new country's formal accession to the Abraham Accords, despite President Trump's recent public appeals at the FII Priority Summit for Saudi Arabia to normalize ties with Israel amid the Iran conflict. Discussions with prospects like Saudi Arabia, Oman, or Syria persist but lack finalized agreements, which historically involve summits, treaties, and U.S. mediation taking weeks amid regional tensions. Only a surprise last-minute declaration—unlikely without prior leaks—could resolve "Yes," underscoring the accords' expansion challenges in volatile geopolitics.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by March 31?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 1% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 1¢, the market collectively assigns a 1% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by March 31?" has generated $202.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by March 31?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by March 31?" is 1% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 1% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by March 31?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.