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Which states will move to the right in Presidential Election?

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Which states will move to the right in Presidential Election?

$649,619 Vol.

Nov 5, 2024
Polymarket

$649,619 Vol.

Polymarket

California

$59,725 Vol.

Yes

New York

$150,567 Vol.

Yes

Texas

$243,377 Vol.

Yes

Alaska

$106,859 Vol.

Yes

Washington

$89,091 Vol.

Yes

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the margin of the Republican candidate's percentage of the vote minus the Democratic candidate's percentage of the vote in the 2024 U.S. Presidential election in California is greater than the corresponding margin in the 2020 U.S. Presidential election. If the 2024 margin is equal to or less than the 2020 margin, this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source for this market will be the official vote count once the state has certified its votes.

If there is a recount in this state before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after certification, the recount will not be considered.

Volume
$649,619
End Date
Nov 5, 2024
Market Opened
Sep 26, 2024, 12:40 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the margin of the Republican candidate's percentage of the vote minus the Democratic candidate's percentage of the vote in the 2024 U.S. Presidential election in California is greater than the corresponding margin in the 2020 U.S. Presidential election. If the 2024 margin is equal to or less than the 2020 margin, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market will be the official vote count once the state has certified its votes. If there is a recount in this state before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after certification, the recount will not be considered.

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Which states will move to the right in Presidential Election?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "California" at 100%, followed by "New York" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Which states will move to the right in Presidential Election?" has generated $649.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Sep 26, 2024. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Which states will move to the right in Presidential Election?," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Which states will move to the right in Presidential Election?" is "California" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "New York" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Which states will move to the right in Presidential Election?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.