Trader consensus assigns a 93.5% implied probability to NASDAQ for SpaceX's anticipated exchange listing, propelled by yesterday's reports of the company's confidential SEC IPO filing targeting a $1.75 trillion-plus valuation and mid-2026 debut, coupled with SpaceX's stated preference for Nasdaq's newly revised rules. These enable "fast entry" into the Nasdaq-100 index as soon as 15 trading days post-IPO—versus three months previously—alongside relaxed float and weighting requirements, potentially unlocking tens of billions in passive fund inflows. SpaceX's operational momentum, including Starlink's $15-16 billion annual revenue and $8 billion profits from satellite constellations and NASA contracts, underpins the blockbuster scale favoring tech-centric Nasdaq over NYSE traditions. Realistic challenges include an aggressive NYSE counteroffer with superior terms or delays in the S-1 public filing revealing alternative plans, though no such shifts have emerged.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedNASDAQ 94%
Other 2.1%
NYSE <1%
$81,333 Vol.
$81,333 Vol.
NASDAQ
94%
Other
2%
NYSE
<1%
NASDAQ 94%
Other 2.1%
NYSE <1%
$81,333 Vol.
$81,333 Vol.
NASDAQ
$15,174 Vol.
94%
Other
$50,133 Vol.
2%
NYSE
$16,026 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the exchange on which SpaceX’s shares first begin public trading as part of its initial public offering (IPO).
The exchange will be determined based on the primary listing venue where SpaceX’s shares are initially listed and begin regular-way trading following its IPO.
If SpaceX lists on multiple exchanges simultaneously, the exchange designated as the primary listing venue by the company or in official exchange materials will be used for resolution.
If SpaceX lists primarily on an exchange other than the NASDAQ or the New York Stock Exchange or if it does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
Announcements, reports, or indications of intended listing venue prior to the IPO will not be considered. The market will resolve based on the actual listing at the time trading begins.
The primary resolution source will be official information from SpaceX or the relevant exchange; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus assigns a 93.5% implied probability to NASDAQ for SpaceX's anticipated exchange listing, propelled by yesterday's reports of the company's confidential SEC IPO filing targeting a $1.75 trillion-plus valuation and mid-2026 debut, coupled with SpaceX's stated preference for Nasdaq's newly revised rules. These enable "fast entry" into the Nasdaq-100 index as soon as 15 trading days post-IPO—versus three months previously—alongside relaxed float and weighting requirements, potentially unlocking tens of billions in passive fund inflows. SpaceX's operational momentum, including Starlink's $15-16 billion annual revenue and $8 billion profits from satellite constellations and NASA contracts, underpins the blockbuster scale favoring tech-centric Nasdaq over NYSE traditions. Realistic challenges include an aggressive NYSE counteroffer with superior terms or delays in the S-1 public filing revealing alternative plans, though no such shifts have emerged.
This market will resolve to the exchange on which SpaceX’s shares first begin public trading as part of its initial public offering (IPO).
The exchange will be determined based on the primary listing venue where SpaceX’s shares are initially listed and begin regular-way trading following its IPO.
If SpaceX lists on multiple exchanges simultaneously, the exchange designated as the primary listing venue by the company or in official exchange materials will be used for resolution.
If SpaceX lists primarily on an exchange other than the NASDAQ or the New York Stock Exchange or if it does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
Announcements, reports, or indications of intended listing venue prior to the IPO will not be considered. The market will resolve based on the actual listing at the time trading begins.
The primary resolution source will be official information from SpaceX or the relevant exchange; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The exchange will be determined based on the primary listing venue where SpaceX’s shares are initially listed and begin regular-way trading following its IPO.
If SpaceX lists on multiple exchanges simultaneously, the exchange designated as the primary listing venue by the company or in official exchange materials will be used for resolution.
If SpaceX lists primarily on an exchange other than the NASDAQ or the New York Stock Exchange or if it does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
Announcements, reports, or indications of intended listing venue prior to the IPO will not be considered. The market will resolve based on the actual listing at the time trading begins.
The primary resolution source will be official information from SpaceX or the relevant exchange; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 25, 2026, 6:15 PM ET
Volume
$81,333Market Opened
Mar 25, 2026, 6:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the exchange on which SpaceX’s shares first begin public trading as part of its initial public offering (IPO).
The exchange will be determined based on the primary listing venue where SpaceX’s shares are initially listed and begin regular-way trading following its IPO.
If SpaceX lists on multiple exchanges simultaneously, the exchange designated as the primary listing venue by the company or in official exchange materials will be used for resolution.
If SpaceX lists primarily on an exchange other than the NASDAQ or the New York Stock Exchange or if it does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
Announcements, reports, or indications of intended listing venue prior to the IPO will not be considered. The market will resolve based on the actual listing at the time trading begins.
The primary resolution source will be official information from SpaceX or the relevant exchange; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus assigns a 93.5% implied probability to NASDAQ for SpaceX's anticipated exchange listing, propelled by yesterday's reports of the company's confidential SEC IPO filing targeting a $1.75 trillion-plus valuation and mid-2026 debut, coupled with SpaceX's stated preference for Nasdaq's newly revised rules. These enable "fast entry" into the Nasdaq-100 index as soon as 15 trading days post-IPO—versus three months previously—alongside relaxed float and weighting requirements, potentially unlocking tens of billions in passive fund inflows. SpaceX's operational momentum, including Starlink's $15-16 billion annual revenue and $8 billion profits from satellite constellations and NASA contracts, underpins the blockbuster scale favoring tech-centric Nasdaq over NYSE traditions. Realistic challenges include an aggressive NYSE counteroffer with superior terms or delays in the S-1 public filing revealing alternative plans, though no such shifts have emerged.
This market will resolve to the exchange on which SpaceX’s shares first begin public trading as part of its initial public offering (IPO).
The exchange will be determined based on the primary listing venue where SpaceX’s shares are initially listed and begin regular-way trading following its IPO.
If SpaceX lists on multiple exchanges simultaneously, the exchange designated as the primary listing venue by the company or in official exchange materials will be used for resolution.
If SpaceX lists primarily on an exchange other than the NASDAQ or the New York Stock Exchange or if it does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
Announcements, reports, or indications of intended listing venue prior to the IPO will not be considered. The market will resolve based on the actual listing at the time trading begins.
The primary resolution source will be official information from SpaceX or the relevant exchange; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The exchange will be determined based on the primary listing venue where SpaceX’s shares are initially listed and begin regular-way trading following its IPO.
If SpaceX lists on multiple exchanges simultaneously, the exchange designated as the primary listing venue by the company or in official exchange materials will be used for resolution.
If SpaceX lists primarily on an exchange other than the NASDAQ or the New York Stock Exchange or if it does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
Announcements, reports, or indications of intended listing venue prior to the IPO will not be considered. The market will resolve based on the actual listing at the time trading begins.
The primary resolution source will be official information from SpaceX or the relevant exchange; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$81,333Market Opened
Mar 25, 2026, 6:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus assigns a 93.5% implied probability to NASDAQ for SpaceX's anticipated exchange listing, propelled by yesterday's reports of the company's confidential SEC IPO filing targeting a $1.75 trillion-plus valuation and mid-2026 debut, coupled with SpaceX's stated preference for Nasdaq's newly revised rules. These enable "fast entry" into the Nasdaq-100 index as soon as 15 trading days post-IPO—versus three months previously—alongside relaxed float and weighting requirements, potentially unlocking tens of billions in passive fund inflows. SpaceX's operational momentum, including Starlink's $15-16 billion annual revenue and $8 billion profits from satellite constellations and NASA contracts, underpins the blockbuster scale favoring tech-centric Nasdaq over NYSE traditions. Realistic challenges include an aggressive NYSE counteroffer with superior terms or delays in the S-1 public filing revealing alternative plans, though no such shifts have emerged.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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