Which countries will the U.S. agree to tariff agreements with before August?
$2,876,386 Vol.
Aug 1, 2025
China
$398,944 Vol.
No
China
$398,944 Vol.
No
India
$253,684 Vol.
No
India
$253,684 Vol.
No
European Union
$264,154 Vol.
Yes
European Union
$264,154 Vol.
Yes
Japan
$102,536 Vol.
Yes
Japan
$102,536 Vol.
Yes
Canada
$117,318 Vol.
No
Canada
$117,318 Vol.
No
Mexico
$1,094,830 Vol.
Yes
Mexico
$1,094,830 Vol.
Yes
South Korea
$244,442 Vol.
Yes
South Korea
$244,442 Vol.
Yes
Vietnam
$30,540 Vol.
Yes
Vietnam
$30,540 Vol.
Yes
Australia
$43,183 Vol.
No
Australia
$43,183 Vol.
No
Germany
$72,923 Vol.
No
Germany
$72,923 Vol.
No
France
$55,238 Vol.
No
France
$55,238 Vol.
No
Brazil
$81,033 Vol.
No
Brazil
$81,033 Vol.
No
Argentina
$84,214 Vol.
No
Argentina
$84,214 Vol.
No
Israel
$33,348 Vol.
No
Israel
$33,348 Vol.
No
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and the listed country/entity between July 1, and July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Country-specific tariff reductions and tariff exemption extensions which are officially announced by the Trump administration will qualify if they reflect a bilateral agreement. However, tariff exemptions which are announced as part of a class of exemptions and do not reflect individual deals - such as Trump’s April 9 pause on all reciprocal tariffs other than those on China - will not qualify (see: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/04/modifying-reciprocal-tariff-rates-to-reflect-trading-partner-retaliation-and-alignment/).
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
Trade agreements on minerals, critical supply chains, or other trade cooperation areas, will not alone qualify.
Agreements that include the United States and the listed country/entity as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and the listed country/entity between July 1, and July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Country-specific tariff reductions and tariff exemption extensions which are officially announced by the Trump administration will qualify if they reflect a bilateral agreement. However, tariff exemptions which are announced as part of a class of exemptions and do not reflect individual deals - such as Trump’s April 9 pause on all reciprocal tariffs other than those on China - will not qualify (see: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/04/modifying-reciprocal-tariff-rates-to-reflect-trading-partner-retaliation-and-alignment/).
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
Trade agreements on minerals, critical supply chains, or other trade cooperation areas, will not alone qualify.
Agreements that include the United States and the listed country/entity as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Country-specific tariff reductions and tariff exemption extensions which are officially announced by the Trump administration will qualify if they reflect a bilateral agreement. However, tariff exemptions which are announced as part of a class of exemptions and do not reflect individual deals - such as Trump’s April 9 pause on all reciprocal tariffs other than those on China - will not qualify (see: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/04/modifying-reciprocal-tariff-rates-to-reflect-trading-partner-retaliation-and-alignment/).
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
Trade agreements on minerals, critical supply chains, or other trade cooperation areas, will not alone qualify.
Agreements that include the United States and the listed country/entity as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached.
Created At: Jul 1, 2025, 9:03 PM ET
Volume
$2,876,386End Date
Aug 1, 2025Created At
Jul 1, 2025, 9:03 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Which countries will the U.S. agree to tariff agreements with before August?
$2,876,386 Vol.
China
$398,944 Vol.
No
India
$253,684 Vol.
No
European Union
$264,154 Vol.
Yes
Japan
$102,536 Vol.
Yes
Canada
$117,318 Vol.
No
Mexico
$1,094,830 Vol.
Yes
South Korea
$244,442 Vol.
Yes
Vietnam
$30,540 Vol.
Yes
Australia
$43,183 Vol.
No
Germany
$72,923 Vol.
No
France
$55,238 Vol.
No
Brazil
$81,033 Vol.
No
Argentina
$84,214 Vol.
No
Israel
$33,348 Vol.
No
About
Volume
$2,876,386End Date
Aug 1, 2025Created At
Jul 1, 2025, 9:03 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...
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