Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview currently holds the #3 spot on LMArena's Text Arena Overall leaderboard (Style Control On)—a blind human-evaluation benchmark emphasizing substance over stylistic flair—with a 1494 Elo score backed by over 17,000 votes, fueling trader consensus at 59% implied probability for maintaining that position through April 30. Anthropic dominates #1 and #2 with Claude Opus 4.6 variants (1504 and 1499 Elo), limiting their #3 contention, while xAI's Grok-4.20-beta1 lurks at #4 (1491 Elo) and OpenAI's GPT-5.4-high sits at #6 (1484), reflecting recent March previews and betas that stabilized rankings amid fierce competition. Traders eye potential April model drops from these labs as key catalysts that could shuffle the closely contested mid-leaderboard.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedGoogle 59%
Anthropic 18%
xAI 11%
OpenAI 7.3%
$12,649 Vol.
$12,649 Vol.

59%

Anthropic
18%

xAI
11%

OpenAI
7%

DeepSeek
1%

Z.ai
<1%

Mistral
<1%

ByteDance
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

Amazon
<1%

Alibaba
<1%

Baidu
<1%

Meituan
<1%
Google 59%
Anthropic 18%
xAI 11%
OpenAI 7.3%
$12,649 Vol.
$12,649 Vol.

59%

Anthropic
18%

xAI
11%

OpenAI
7%

DeepSeek
1%

Z.ai
<1%

Mistral
<1%

ByteDance
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

Amazon
<1%

Alibaba
<1%

Baidu
<1%

Meituan
<1%
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market Opened: Mar 20, 2026, 4:44 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview currently holds the #3 spot on LMArena's Text Arena Overall leaderboard (Style Control On)—a blind human-evaluation benchmark emphasizing substance over stylistic flair—with a 1494 Elo score backed by over 17,000 votes, fueling trader consensus at 59% implied probability for maintaining that position through April 30. Anthropic dominates #1 and #2 with Claude Opus 4.6 variants (1504 and 1499 Elo), limiting their #3 contention, while xAI's Grok-4.20-beta1 lurks at #4 (1491 Elo) and OpenAI's GPT-5.4-high sits at #6 (1484), reflecting recent March previews and betas that stabilized rankings amid fierce competition. Traders eye potential April model drops from these labs as key catalysts that could shuffle the closely contested mid-leaderboard.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions