Market icon

Which company has the #3 AI model end of April? (Style Control On)

Market icon

Which company has the #3 AI model end of April? (Style Control On)

Apr 30

Apr 30

Google 59%

Anthropic 18%

xAI 11%

OpenAI 7.3%

Polymarket

$12,649 Vol.

Google 59%

Anthropic 18%

xAI 11%

OpenAI 7.3%

Polymarket

$12,649 Vol.

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Google

$1,692 Vol.

59%

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Anthropic

$1,677 Vol.

18%

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xAI

$2,186 Vol.

11%

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OpenAI

$562 Vol.

7%

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DeepSeek

$582 Vol.

1%

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Z.ai

$756 Vol.

<1%

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Mistral

$802 Vol.

<1%

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ByteDance

$816 Vol.

<1%

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Moonshot

$1,029 Vol.

<1%

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Amazon

$792 Vol.

<1%

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Alibaba

$523 Vol.

<1%

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Baidu

$644 Vol.

<1%

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Meituan

$589 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview currently holds the #3 spot on LMArena's Text Arena Overall leaderboard (Style Control On)—a blind human-evaluation benchmark emphasizing substance over stylistic flair—with a 1494 Elo score backed by over 17,000 votes, fueling trader consensus at 59% implied probability for maintaining that position through April 30. Anthropic dominates #1 and #2 with Claude Opus 4.6 variants (1504 and 1499 Elo), limiting their #3 contention, while xAI's Grok-4.20-beta1 lurks at #4 (1491 Elo) and OpenAI's GPT-5.4-high sits at #6 (1484), reflecting recent March previews and betas that stabilized rankings amid fierce competition. Traders eye potential April model drops from these labs as key catalysts that could shuffle the closely contested mid-leaderboard.

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.

Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$12,649
End Date
Apr 30, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 20, 2026, 4:44 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview currently holds the #3 spot on LMArena's Text Arena Overall leaderboard (Style Control On)—a blind human-evaluation benchmark emphasizing substance over stylistic flair—with a 1494 Elo score backed by over 17,000 votes, fueling trader consensus at 59% implied probability for maintaining that position through April 30. Anthropic dominates #1 and #2 with Claude Opus 4.6 variants (1504 and 1499 Elo), limiting their #3 contention, while xAI's Grok-4.20-beta1 lurks at #4 (1491 Elo) and OpenAI's GPT-5.4-high sits at #6 (1484), reflecting recent March previews and betas that stabilized rankings amid fierce competition. Traders eye potential April model drops from these labs as key catalysts that could shuffle the closely contested mid-leaderboard.

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.

Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$12,649
End Date
Apr 30, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 20, 2026, 4:44 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Which company has the #3 AI model end of April? (Style Control On)" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 13 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Google" at 59%, followed by "Anthropic" at 18%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 59¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 59% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Which company has the #3 AI model end of April? (Style Control On)" has generated $12.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 20, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Which company has the #3 AI model end of April? (Style Control On)," browse the 13 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Which company has the #3 AI model end of April? (Style Control On)" is "Google" at 59%, meaning the market assigns a 59% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Anthropic" at 18%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Which company has the #3 AI model end of April? (Style Control On)" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.