Name: What will Trump say during Wisconsin rally?
Start: 2024-09-04T00:49:12.409809Z
End: 2024-09-07T12:00:00Z

Use the internal polymarket geolocation service.

poly_geo

Improved notification preferences and types.

notifications_v2

funkit_deposit

funkit_withdraw

authenticated_book_ws

Improved in-game view for sports markets.

mobile_sports_overlay_v2

async_order_submission

Enable updates from the sports websocket.

sports_websocket

This is a market group over what Donald Trump will say at his rally scheduled to be held in Mosinee, Wisconsin, on September 7, 2024.

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally to be held on September 7 in Mosinee, Wisconsin.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "Guatemela" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "Guatemala" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the country in Central America.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond September 7, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

Guatemala

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally to be held on September 7 in Mosinee, Wisconsin.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "tampon" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "tampon" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the feminine hygiene product.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond September 7, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

Tampon

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally to be held on September 7 in Mosinee, Wisconsin.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "marxist" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "marxist" is part of the compound word and references something relating to or denoting the political and economic theories of Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond September 7, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

Marxist

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally to be held on September 7 in Mosinee, Wisconsin.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "drill baby drill" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the phrase regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the phrase will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond September 7, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

Drill baby drill

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally to be held on September 7 in Mosinee, Wisconsin.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "fake news" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the phrase regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the phrase will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond September 7, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

Fake News

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally to be held on September 7 in Mosinee, Wisconsin.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "crypto" or "Bitcoin" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to decentralized cryptocurrency (e.g. "cryptocurrency-related" counts).

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond September 7, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

Crypto/Bitcoin

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally to be held on September 7 in Mosinee, Wisconsin.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "mosquito" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "mosquito" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to a slender long-legged flying insect with aquatic larvae, the female of which is known to suck blood.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond September 7, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

Mosquito

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally to be held on September 7 in Mosinee, Wisconsin.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "abortion" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "abortion" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the deliberate termination of a human pregnancy.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond September 7, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

Abortion

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally to be held on September 7 in Mosinee, Wisconsin.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "fired" 3 or more times during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond September 7, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

Fired 3+ times

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally to be held on September 7 in Mosinee, Wisconsin.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "Comrade Kamala" 3 or more times during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the phrase regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the phrase will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond September 7, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

Comrade Kamala 3+ times

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally to be held on September 7 in Mosinee, Wisconsin.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "border czar" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the phrase regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the phrase will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond September 7, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

Border Czar

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally to be held on September 7 in Mosinee, Wisconsin.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "border" 15 or more times during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "border" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to belonging to a political boundary between nations.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond September 7 this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

Border 15+ times

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally to be held on September 7 in Mosinee, Wisconsin.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "green new scam" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the phrase regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the phrase will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond September 7, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

Green New Scam

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally to be held on September 7 in Mosinee, Wisconsin.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "alien" 5 or more times during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "alien" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to belonging to a foreign country or nation.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond September 7, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

Alien 5+ times

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally to be held on September 7 in Mosinee, Wisconsin.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "China" 5 or more times during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "China" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the East Asian country named the People's Republic of China.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond September 7, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

China 5+ times

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally to be held on September 7 in Mosinee, Wisconsin.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "MAGA" and/or "make America great again" 4 or more times during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "MAGA" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to making America great again (e.g. "MAGA-themed" counts).

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond September 7, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

MAGA 4+ times

What will Trump say during Wisconsin rally?

Donald Trump is set to make an appearance at the Rocky Mount Events Center on December 19, 2025 (https://www.wral.com/news/local/president-trump-speak-rocky-mount-friday-december-2025/).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at the specified event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Pluralization/possessive of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

This market is explicitly about Donald Trump's scheduled appearance at Rocky Mount on December 19, 2025. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by December 19, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.

Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 20+ times at Rocky Mount events on Friday?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Wisconsin, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

If no 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Wisconsin Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Sean Duffy win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Republican primary election?

Donald Trump is scheduled to participate in an event titled "The President makes an Announcement" in Washington on December 19, 2025, 1PM ET (see https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/calendar/).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at the specified event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Pluralization/possessive of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

This market is explicitly about the scheduled event titled "The President makes an Announcement" on December 19, 2025, 1PM ET (https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/topic/calendar/). Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by December 19, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.

Will Trump say "Pharmaceutical" or "Pharmaceuticals" during the announcement on December 19?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Wisconsin, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

If no 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Wisconsin Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Mandela Barnes win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits the listed state between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial territory of the listed state. Whether or not Trump enters the state’s airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump, or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g., https://twitter.com/POTUS); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Donald Trump visit Florida in 2026?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial election.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?

Donald Trump is scheduled to participate in an event titled "The President signs the National Defense Authorization Act" in Washington on December 18, 2025, 6PM ET (see https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/calendar/).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at the specified event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Pluralization/possessive of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

This market is explicitly about the scheduled event titled "The President signs the National Defense Authorization Act" on December 18, 2025, 6PM ET (https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/topic/calendar/). Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by December 18, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.

Will Trump say "World War 3" at National Defense Authorization Act signing on December 18?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Donald Trump announces that he is running for a third term as US President by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Trump must definitively state his intent to run (e.g., "I am running for a third term" or equivalent unambiguous language); vague comments, speculative or contingent remarks or jokes will not suffice. 

Past statements such his March 30 NBC phone interview where he stated "There are methods which you could do it, as you know... A lot of people want me to do it." or his November 13, 2024, where he stated "I suspect I won’t be running again unless you say, ‘He’s so good we’ve got to figure something else out.’" would NOT qualify. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Donald Trump (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Trump announce run for 3rd term?

Donald Trump is set to make an appearance at the 48th Annual Kennedy Center Honors, which is scheduled to air on December 23, 2025 (https://www.npr.org/2025/12/05/nx-s1-5607173/kennedy-center-honors-trump).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at the specified event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Pluralization/possessive of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

This market is explicitly about Donald Trump's scheduled appearance at the Kennedy Center Honors event on December 7, 2025. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by December 23, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.

Will Trump say "Trump" at the Kennedy Center Honors event?

The 2026 midterm elections for the US House of Representatives is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Republicans hold fewer seats in the House of Representatives for any state that Trump won in the 2024 US presidential election as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

Initial seat counts will be based on the composition of the US House of Representatives as of November 2, 2026, 11:59PM ET.

This market's resolution will be solely based on the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives for any state won by Trump in the 2024 Presidential election. The loss of particular district seats will not count towards a resolution for this market; only the total number of seats held by the Republican Party in a given state will be considered. (e.g. The loss of a particular district's seat by the Republican Party followed by the gain of another district's seat would not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".)

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

For the purposes of this market, states won by Trump in the 2024 Presidential election include Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and Wyoming. This list is determined by the winner of the electoral votes for each state in the 2024 Presidential election. In states such as Maine and Nebraska, where electoral votes are allocated separately by congressional districts as well as to the statewide winner, only the electoral votes allocated to the statewide winner are considered.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Will Republicans lose a seat in the House of Representatives in any state Trump won in 2024?

This market will resolve based on whether Donald Trump announces that he will vote for or endorse the listed candidate in the election named in the title.

If Donald Trump does not announce an endorsement by the day before the scheduled election at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Donald Trump's endorsement.

Will Trump endorse Andy Barr for KY-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits China by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump visit China by April 30?

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits North Korea between August 4 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG) buys any amount of $TRUMP (https://solscan.io/token/6p6xgHyF7AeE6TZkSmFsko444wqoP15icUSqi2jfGiPN), either directly or through a subsidiary, between July 21, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be announcements through official information from TMTG, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump Media buy $TRUMP in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between November 19, 2025, 12:00 PM ET and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.

Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Will Trump say "Polymarket" by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump meets with Benjamin Netanyahu between November 18 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A meeting is defined as any encounter where both the listed individual and Trump are present and interact with each other in person.

An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Trump meet with Netanyahu again before 2026?

The 2026 midterm elections for the US Senate is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Republicans hold fewer seats in the Senate for any state that Trump won in the 2024 US presidential election as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

Initial seat counts will be based on the composition of the US Senate as of November 2, 2026, 11:59PM ET.

This market's resolution will be solely based on the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate for any state won by Trump in the 2024 Presidential election. The loss of particular seat will not count towards a resolution for this market; only the total number of seats held by the Republican Party in a given state will be considered. (e.g. The loss of one of a state's seats by the Republican Party followed by the gain of the other seat would not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".)

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

For the purposes of this market, states won by Trump in the 2024 Presidential election include Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and Wyoming. This list is determined by the winner of the electoral votes for each state in the 2024 Presidential election. In states such as Maine and Nebraska, where electoral votes are allocated separately by congressional districts as well as to the statewide winner, only the electoral votes allocated to the statewide winner are considered.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?

On September 1, 2025, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Trump administration may declare a national housing emergency this fall to address high housing costs.(see: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/bessent-says-trump-administration-will-tackle-high-housing-costs-with-new-2025-09-01/)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump formally declares a national emergency under the National Emergencies Act (NEA) primarily addressing housing by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A national emergency must actually be declared for this market to resolve to "Yes" - it will not be enough for Trump to announce an intention to declare a national emergency.

This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration.

Will Trump announce a national housing emergency in 2025?

AmericaFest is scheduled to take place from December 18 - December 21, 2025, and Steve Bannon is scheduled to speak on December 19 at 5:59PM ET (https://tpusa.com/agenda/).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Steve Bannon says the listed term during the scheduled event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

If prerecorded clips are aired where Steve Bannon is speaking, those clips will NOT count toward this market's resolution.

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

Any usage of the term, regardless of context, will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market; however, other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

If prerecorded clips are aired where Steve Bannon is speaking, those clips will NOT count toward this market's resolution.

This market is explicitly about Steve Bannon's scheduled appearance at the TPUSA AmericaFest event on December 19, 2025. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such event is aired by December 19, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". 

The resolution source will be video of the event.

Will Steve Bannon say "Trump" 10+ times at AmericaFest events on December 19?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks Benjamin Netanyahu personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

This includes calling Netanyahu weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, or using other derogatory language. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.

Any public statement made by Trump qualifies.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Trump publicly disparage Netanyahu by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump is interviewed by Tucker Carlson between November 17, 2025 and February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An interview is defined as a scheduled, recorded conversation where Donald Trump answers questions posed by Tucker Carlson. Press conferences or media briefings held by the White House with Carlson in attendance will not count.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a credible consensus of reporting that Donald Trump has recorded an interview with Tucker Carlson before February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, even if that interview is not yet released.

The resolution source for this market will be publicly available video footage of the interview; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Tucker Carlson interview Trump by February 28?

On August 15, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin met in person at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson near Anchorage, Alaska, for a summit focused on potential peace terms in Ukraine. 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Vladimir Putin meets with Donald Trump on a separate occasion from the August 15, 2025 meeting by the listed date (ET).  Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Encounters that are part of, or a continuation of, the August 15 meeting will not qualify, even if they occur on a different day (e.g. August 16).

A meeting is defined as any encounter where both Putin and Trump are present and interact with each other in person.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Trump meet with Putin by March 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s Truth Social post published on the morning of December 15, 2025, regarding the passing of Rob Reiner (https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/115724141568860081) is deleted at any point between this market’s creation and December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

A qualifying deletion includes the post being removed for any duration, regardless of whether it is later reposted.

Edits to the post will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be Donald Trump’s official Truth Social account; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump remove his Rob Reiner post?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, and Kim Jong Un all meet with Donald Trump between October 24, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A meeting is defined as any encounter where both the listed individual and Trump are present and interact with each other in person.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Trump meets Xi, Putin, and Kim by December 31?

This market will resolve according to the location of the next meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin between September 30 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "No meeting by June 30" if no qualifying meeting occurs during this market's timeframe.

A meeting is defined as any encounter where Putin and Trump are all present and interact with each other in person.

An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.

For this market, Gulf states are defined as the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates).

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Trump and Putin meet next in another EU country?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, in which he insults, mocks, or attacks Nicholas J. Fuentes personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This includes calling Nicholas J. Fuentes weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “Nick isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to Nicholas J. Fuentes’s professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “Nick isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.

A direct reference will qualify even if Nicholas J. Fuentes is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that he is the subject.

Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.

Will Trump disparage Nick Fuentes by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG) announces that it has acquired more Bitcoin between July 24 11:00 ET, 2025, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from TMTG, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


Will Trump Media buy more Bitcoin in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Washington Commanders, or the ownership/development entity responsible for the team’s planned new stadium in Washington, D.C., officially announce and agree that the stadium will be named after Donald Trump, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

A qualifying announcement must:
- Be made publicly and on the record by the Commanders organization or by the entity that owns or controls the new stadium (e.g., via press release, official statement, or filing).
- Clearly state that the new stadium will bear Trump’s name (for example, “Trump Stadium” or “Donald J. Trump Field”).
- Reflect a finalized agreement or naming-rights deal, not a proposal, negotiation, or expression of intent.

If any other official naming-rights deal is announced for the new stadium prior to June 30, 2026 — including a corporate sponsorship or another individual’s name — this market will resolve to “No.”

The resolution sources will be a consensus of credible reporting. 

Washington Commanders agree to name stadium after Trump?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between December 15, 2025, 12:00 AM ET and December 21, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.

Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Will Trump say "Gold Card" this week? (December 15 - 21)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump publicly claims that any of the moon landings were faked by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The claim must come directly from Trump via a verified social media account, official public statement, or during a recorded interview, speech, or rally. Indirect remarks, jokes, or quotes taken out of context will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be statements made by Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used to confirm the legitimacy of such statements.

Trump says Moon Landing faked in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.

Trump impeached by end of 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin meet in Hungary at any time by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

A meeting is defined as any encounter where Trump and Putin are both present and interact with each other in person.

An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

What will Trump say during Wisconsin rally?

Abortion
$37,975 Vol.
Yes

Comrade Kamala 3+ times
$63,146 Vol.
Yes

Border Czar
$21,231 Vol.
Yes

Border 15+ times
$39,935 Vol.
Yes

Alien 5+ times
$42,706 Vol.
No

China 5+ times
$82,534 Vol.
Yes

MAGA 4+ times
$67,187 Vol.
No

Guatemala
$4,320 Vol.
Yes

Drill baby drill
$38,339 Vol.
Yes

Fake News
$52,609 Vol.
Yes

Crypto/Bitcoin
$65,445 Vol.
No

Fired 3+ times
$45,311 Vol.
Yes

Green New Scam
$24,520 Vol.
Yes

Tampon
$36,738 Vol.
Yes

Marxist
$12,270 Vol.
Yes

Mosquito
$3,449 Vol.
No

Market Context

What will Trump say during Wisconsin rally?

Rules

What will Trump say during Wisconsin rally?

Market Context

What will Trump say during Wisconsin rally?

About

Related

What will Trump say during Wisconsin rally?

Abortion$37,975 Vol.Yescircle check

Comrade Kamala 3+ times$63,146 Vol.Yescircle check

Border Czar$21,231 Vol.Yescircle check

Border 15+ times$39,935 Vol.Yescircle check

Alien 5+ times$42,706 Vol.Nocircle xmark

China 5+ times$82,534 Vol.Yescircle check

MAGA 4+ times$67,187 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Guatemala$4,320 Vol.Yescircle check

Drill baby drill$38,339 Vol.Yescircle check

Fake News$52,609 Vol.Yescircle check

Crypto/Bitcoin$65,445 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Fired 3+ times$45,311 Vol.Yescircle check

Green New Scam$24,520 Vol.Yescircle check

Tampon$36,738 Vol.Yescircle check

Marxist$12,270 Vol.Yescircle check

Mosquito$3,449 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Market Context

What will Trump say during Wisconsin rally?

Rules

What will Trump say during Wisconsin rally?

Market Context

What will Trump say during Wisconsin rally?

About

Related

Abortion
$37,975 Vol.
Yes

Comrade Kamala 3+ times
$63,146 Vol.
Yes

Border Czar
$21,231 Vol.
Yes

Border 15+ times
$39,935 Vol.
Yes

Alien 5+ times
$42,706 Vol.
No

China 5+ times
$82,534 Vol.
Yes

MAGA 4+ times
$67,187 Vol.
No

Guatemala
$4,320 Vol.
Yes

Drill baby drill
$38,339 Vol.
Yes

Fake News
$52,609 Vol.
Yes

Crypto/Bitcoin
$65,445 Vol.
No

Fired 3+ times
$45,311 Vol.
Yes

Green New Scam
$24,520 Vol.
Yes

Tampon
$36,738 Vol.
Yes

Marxist
$12,270 Vol.
Yes

Mosquito
$3,449 Vol.
No