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Tech·IPOs

What will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be?

Market icon
Tech·IPOs

What will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be?

1.50-1.75T 31%

1.75-2.00T 31%

2.00-2.25T 15%

2.25-2.50T 9%

Polymarket

$95,802 Vol.

1.50-1.75T 31%

1.75-2.00T 31%

2.00-2.25T 15%

2.25-2.50T 9%

Polymarket

$95,802 Vol.

<1.25T

$54,138 Vol.

5%

1.25-1.50T

$9,523 Vol.

8%

1.50-1.75T

$5,239 Vol.

31%

1.75-2.00T

$4,672 Vol.

31%

2.00-2.25T

$6,531 Vol.

15%

2.25-2.50T

$7,692 Vol.

9%

2.50T+

$8,091 Vol.

6%

This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of SpaceX at its initial public offering (IPO) price. The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered. Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered. If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range. If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Polymarket traders show split sentiment with equal 30.5% implied probabilities for SpaceX's IPO valuation landing in the $1.50-1.75 trillion and $1.75-2.00 trillion bins, reflecting yesterday's confidential S-1 filing targeting an initial $1.75 trillion mark—now reportedly boosted above $2 trillion per Bloomberg—amid Starlink's subscriber growth to over 7 million and record launch cadence. This trader consensus, backed by real capital, prices in SpaceX's launch dominance and Starship progress versus execution risks, regulatory hurdles for satellite constellation expansion, and a historical Musk premium akin to Tesla's. Key differentiators include Starlink revenue trajectory and macro risk appetite, with formal prospectus expected in weeks ahead of a potential mid-June pricing.

This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of SpaceX at its initial public offering (IPO) price.

The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered.

Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered.

If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.

If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$95,802
Market Opened
Mar 25, 2026, 6:10 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of SpaceX at its initial public offering (IPO) price. The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered. Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered. If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range. If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of SpaceX at its initial public offering (IPO) price. The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered. Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered. If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range. If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Polymarket traders show split sentiment with equal 30.5% implied probabilities for SpaceX's IPO valuation landing in the $1.50-1.75 trillion and $1.75-2.00 trillion bins, reflecting yesterday's confidential S-1 filing targeting an initial $1.75 trillion mark—now reportedly boosted above $2 trillion per Bloomberg—amid Starlink's subscriber growth to over 7 million and record launch cadence. This trader consensus, backed by real capital, prices in SpaceX's launch dominance and Starship progress versus execution risks, regulatory hurdles for satellite constellation expansion, and a historical Musk premium akin to Tesla's. Key differentiators include Starlink revenue trajectory and macro risk appetite, with formal prospectus expected in weeks ahead of a potential mid-June pricing.

This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of SpaceX at its initial public offering (IPO) price.

The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered.

Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered.

If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.

If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$95,802
Market Opened
Mar 25, 2026, 6:10 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of SpaceX at its initial public offering (IPO) price. The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered. Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered. If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range. If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Related

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Will SpaceX raise between $70B and $80B in its IPO?

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Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?

45%
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Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day?

49%

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Frequently Asked Questions

"What will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "1.50-1.75T" at 31%, followed by "1.75-2.00T" at 31%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 31¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 31% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "What will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be?" has generated $95.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 25, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "What will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "What will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be?" is "1.50-1.75T" at 31%, meaning the market assigns a 31% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "1.75-2.00T" at 31%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "What will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.