Name: What will happen before GTA VI?
Start: 2025-05-02T15:48:25.262673Z
End: 2026-07-31T12:00:00Z

Use the internal polymarket geolocation service.

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Improved notification preferences and types.

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Improved in-game view for sports markets.

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Enable updates from the sports websocket.

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This is a market on predicting events that will occur before the release of Grand Theft Auto VI.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if  if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.

For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.

The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.

Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.

Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.

The resolution for a ceasefire will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.


Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Rihanna officially releases a new album before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.

For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.

The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.

Officially released means that a newly released album is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date.

Re-releases, deluxe editions, compilations, or greatest hits albums will not count, unless they contain at least 50% tracks that have never been officially released in any format prior to the album's release.

The resolution source for the album release will be any official streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify.

New Rihanna Album

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Playboi Carti officially releases a new album before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.

For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.

The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.

Officially released means that a newly released album is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date.

Re-releases, deluxe editions, compilations, or greatest hits albums will not count, unless they contain at least 50% tracks that have never been officially released in any format prior to the album's release.

The resolution source for the album release will be any official streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify.

New Playboi Carti Album 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if The Second Coming of Jesus Christ occurs before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.

For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.

The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.

The resolution source for the return of Jesus will be a consensus of credible sources.

Jesus Christ returns

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump ceases to be the President of the U.S. for any period of time before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.

For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.

The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.

An announcement of Trump's resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, will not count.

The resolution source for Trump leaving the presidency will be a consensus of credible reporting.


Trump out as President 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.

For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.

The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.

An announcement of Trump's resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election will not alone qualify.

Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.

The resolution source for China invading Taiwan will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be use


China invades Taiwan 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) has a final "High" price of $1,000,000 or higher before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.

For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.

The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.

The resolution source for Bitcoin is Binance, specifically the BTCUSDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar.

Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTCUSDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Bitcoin hits $1m

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.

For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.

The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.

To qualify, GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.

GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-4 to GPT-5. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.

The primary resolution source for the release of GPT-6 will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

GPT-6 released

What will happen before GTA VI?

The United States has officially withdrawn from mediating peace talks between Ukraine and Russia after Vladimir Putin refused to agree to a ceasefire. This decision shifts the focus to military outcomes on the battlefield, with Ukraine intensifying efforts to strengthen its position.

US Withdraws Peace Talks

👤PLAYBOI CARTI 

💿BABYBOI
    (THE ALBUM)

🗓BEFORE GTA6 https://t.co/XhmGv0MiLc

Zelensky: Held Staff meeting on brigade supply, unit manning, and Ukraine’s missile program — goal is to speed up ballistic missile production. Russia refuses lasting ceasefire; we’ll respond on the front and inside Russian territory. The war must be felt where it began. https://t.co/x8vk6KgC09

🚨ICYMI🚨

The White House announced it will cease facilitating peace talks between Ukraine and Russia, following Vladimir Putin's refusal to agree to a ceasefire.

🚨🇷🇺

UKRAINE MAD?

Russia has offered Ukraine a 3 Day Ceasefire, to celebrate the 80th Anniversary of WW2.

Here's my video covering it: https://t.co/hPAorTFP8M

we are fr going to get another Playboi Carti album before GTA 6 💀 https://t.co/zSMSKhMte9 https://t.co/Cit8rGe0wN

A ceasefire or peace deal between Russia and Ukraine is not happening in the near term.  Although the White House sees the war as "senseless,"  it's not senseless to Ukraine or Russia, albeit for very different reasons.  
https://t.co/PhDdsNnrAc

Ukrainian intelligence expects russia-organised false flag attacks on May 9th ("victory day") parades in russian regions. The reason: russia wants to paint Ukraine as a nation which cannot stand "victory over Nazism" celebration and accuse Ukraine of violation of "ceasefire".

Dude really just joined Polymarket for the sole purpose of betting against the GTA VI release.

He's already up over $2.5k in less than a week.

Maybe he's onto something? 🤔

#BREAKING: The US 🇺🇸 is withdrawing from mediating peace talks between Russia 🇷🇺 and Ukraine 🇺🇦 after Russian President Putin refused to agree to a ceasefire, reports @Telegraph. 

The US also signed a minerals deal with Ukraine this week and @POTUS has reportedly signed off on a

Ça fait presque 50 jours que Playboi Carti a sorti son album le plus attendu 'MUSIC'...

Vous en pensez quoi après tout ce temps ? https://t.co/gCqML13TZY

#BREAKING The U.S. will no longer mediate in peace talks between Ukraine and Russia after Putin refused to sign the ceasefire agreement - The Telegraph

The United States will no longer act as a mediator in peace talks between Ukraine and Russia. This decision was made after Russian President Vladimir Putin refused to sign the ceasefire agreement proposed by the Americans.
 US State Department spokeswoman Tammy Bruce said https://t.co/13Xb7uPrIk

🇺🇦 FM Sybiiha: Ukraine seeks real peace, not Kremlin’s manipulative “holiday ceasefires.”

“We are ready for a full ceasefire — it's Russia that rejects peace. No deals at the cost of sovereignty.”

https://t.co/c6Q28WqM8E https://t.co/pjbtsbMuh8

FAIR WEATHER FRIENDS: @nypost  reports that the US is stepping back from its involvement in peace talks between Russia and Ukraine to end the war. Washington has come to realization it was being played by Putin, who violated the ‘Easer Ceasefire” 2,000 times in 36 hours. https://t.co/dOsCLsyiTK

If this were true Russia would've agreed to the ceasefire. This is nonsense.

(Faulty) Intelligence suggests Putin may have shifted to objectives of solidifying his hold on occupied territory in Ukraine and boosting his country’s struggling economy.
https://t.co/ahuaZIo6vC

Surprise, surprise! 
The outcome of this war will be decided on the battlefield. Anyone who wants peace and freedom for Ukraine must make it militarily strong enough that Russia cannot dictate the terms of a ceasefire.  https://t.co/D9qQlJviTb

🔴 The United States will no longer mediate peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia after Vladimir Putin refused to sign up to a ceasefire.

Read the latest in our live blog 👇
https://t.co/SR7JhNJ2JT https://t.co/TZOyaoX5dt

Which is more likely: 

(1) Grand Theft Auto VI
(2) New music from Rihanna or Frank Ocean
(3) None of the above

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.

The resolution source will be official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.

GTA VI released before June 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.

The resolution source will be official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.

GTA VI released in 2025?

On November 6, 2025, Take-Two Interactive, the parent company of Rockstar Games, announced that the launch of Grand Theft Auto VI (GTA VI) would be postponed from its previously scheduled release date of May 26, 2026, to a new release date of November 19, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if by November 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive, officially announces that Grand Theft Auto VI will not be released by November 19, 2026, or if Grand Theft Auto VI is otherwise not released in the US by November 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.

The resolution source will be official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


GTA 6 launch postponed again?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if another official trailer for the next GTA (GTA VI) is released by Rockstar Games or any of its official accounts, including but not limited to Rockstar's official website, YouTube channel, Twitter, or any other official social media platform between July 8 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

An "official trailer" is defined as a video clearly labelled and marketed as a trailer for the game in question. Teasers, gameplay snippets, or other promotional materials will not qualify for resolution unless explicitly marketed as an official trailer by Rockstar Games.

This market will resolve immediately if such an official trailer is released by the expiry date. If no official trailer is released by the specified date, this market will resolve to "No".

Another GTA VI trailer released in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the standard edition of Grand Theft Auto VI (GTA 6) launches at $100.00 or more. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the pre-tax launch price in USD of the standard edition of GTA 6 on Xbox or PlayStation as listed on the Microsoft Store or PlayStation Store on the first official day of its release in the United States.

If the price differs between the Microsoft and PlayStation stores, this market will resolve according to the lower price.

This market will resolve based on the lowest price version that includes the full standard game with no DLC, etc.

If GTA 6 is not released by February 28, 2026, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Microsoft Store/PlayStation Store, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will GTA 6 cost $100+?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.

GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Valve publicly and explicitly announces that Half-Life 3 is in production by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The announcement of the creation of any expansion or sequel not explicitly named "Half-Life 3" (e.g., Half-Life: Alyx, Half-Life 2: Episode One) will not be sufficient to qualify this market toward a "Yes" resolution. The game must have the words "Half-Life 3" in the title to qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Valve or a consensus of credible sources.

Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve to “No” if it becomes impossible for this team to win the 2026 NBA Finals based off the rules of the NBA.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the NBA.

Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Valve publicly and explicitly announces that Half-Life 3 is in production by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The announcement of the creation of any expansion or sequel not explicitly named "Half-Life 3" (e.g., Half-Life: Alyx, Half-Life 2: Episode One) will not be sufficient to qualify this market toward a "Yes" resolution. The game must have the words "Half-Life 3" in the title to qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Valve or a consensus of credible sources.

Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2027?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve to “No” if it becomes impossible for this team to win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup based off the rules of the NHL.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the NHL.


Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl LX. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the Super Bowl based on the rules of the NFL (e.g. they are eliminated in the playoff bracket), this market will resolve immediately to "No".

Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Half-Life 3 or a differently titled game continuing the Half-Life series is officially released in the US by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.

The resolution source will be official information from Valve Corporation.

Half-Life 3 released in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla publicly releases an unsupervised Full Self-Driving capability that satisfies all of the following criteria by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

1. Tesla (or Elon Musk) must label the feature “Full Self-Driving” or use an equivalent name indicating no requirement for human intervention.

2. The system must operate on public roads without a human driver present or required to oversee its performance. In practice, this means either:
- The vehicle runs with no one in the driver’s seat, or
- The vehicle operates in a mode where no occupant is expected to monitor or intervene.

3. Tesla or any Tesla-affiliated entity must make the unsupervised Full Self-Driving capability broadly accessible either through a robo-taxi or ride-hailing service open to the public, or inclusion as a standard or optional feature on newly sold Tesla vehicles, or a software update that enables unsupervised operation in current vehicles.

Any mode that requires a licensed driver to be seated in the vehicle, or for a human (on-site or remote) to continuously supervise the driving performance or remain ready to intervene at any moment, will not qualify. However, remote monitoring that does not involve continuous supervision or expectation of real-time intervention—for example, oversight limited to emergency response—will not disqualify the service.

This market’s resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if The Second Coming of Jesus Christ occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?

This market will resolve according to the Game that wins Best Game Direction at the 2025 Game Awards scheduled for December 11, 2025.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". 

In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the game whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from thegameawards.com; however, a consensus of credible information will also be used.

Will Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 win Best Game Direction at the 2025 Game Awards?

This market will resolve according to the Game that wins Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards scheduled for December 11, 2025.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". 

In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the game whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from thegameawards.com; however, a consensus of credible information will also be used.

Will Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards?

This market will resolve to if Valve publicly and explicitly announces that a new Half-Life game is in production by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

To qualify for a "Yes" resolution, the game must be explicitly acknowledged by Valve to be an installment of the Half-Life franchise or have the words "Half-Life" in the title. Updates to and expansion packs for already-released games will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". An announcement by Valve of a new qualifying game before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced game becomes available to the public. 

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Valve or a consensus of credible sources.

New Half-Life game by June 30?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the New England Patriots win the 2025-26 AFC Championship. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the AFC Championship based on the rules of the NFL (e.g. they are eliminated in the playoff bracket), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.

Will the Patriots win the AFC Championship?

This market will resolve according to the Game that wins Best Independent Game at the 2025 Game Awards scheduled for December 11, 2025.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". 

In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the game whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from thegameawards.com; however, a consensus of credible information will also be used.

Will Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 win Best Independent Game at the 2025 Game Awards?

The winners of the Steam Awards for 2025 will be chosen by community vote. Results will be announced on January 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the game which wins Most Innovative Gameplay in the 2025 Steam Awards.

If for any reason no winner is declared by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In case of a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the game whose name comes first in alphabetical order.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Steam, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.

Will Split Fiction win Most Innovative Gameplay in the 2025 Steam Awards?

This is a polymarket on whether the listed club will win the 2025–26 Serie A.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed club is officially crowned the winner of the 2025–26 Serie A. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed club to win the league (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the market will resolve to "No".

If the 2025–26 Serie A season is canceled or not completed by October 1, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source will be official information from Serie A. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Inter win the 2025–26 Serie A league?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Denver Broncos win the AFC West in the 2025-2026 NFL Season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If at any point it becomes impossible for the Denver Broncos team to win the AFC West based on the rules of the NFL (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated from finishing first in the division), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.

Will the Denver Broncos win the AFC West?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Los Angeles Rams win the 2025-26 NFC Championship. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the NFC Championship based on the rules of the NFL (e.g. they are eliminated in the playoff bracket), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.

Will the Rams win the NFC Championship?

This market will resolve according to the Game that wins Best Multiplayer Game at the 2025 Game Awards scheduled for December 11, 2025.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". 

In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the game whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from thegameawards.com; however, a consensus of credible information will also be used.

Will Arc Raiders win Best Multiplayer Game at the 2025 Game Awards?

This market will resolve according to the Game that wins Best Mobile Game at the 2025 Game Awards scheduled for December 11, 2025.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". 

In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the game whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from thegameawards.com; however, a consensus of credible information will also be used.

Will Umamusume: Pretty Derby win Best Mobile Game at the 2025 Game Awards?

This market will resolve according to the Game that wins Best Art Direction at the 2025 Game Awards scheduled for December 11, 2025.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". 

In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the game whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from thegameawards.com; however, a consensus of credible information will also be used.

Will Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 win Best Art Direction at the 2025 Game Awards?

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between September 19, 2025, 6 PM ET, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Artificial Intelligence is named TIME's Person of 2025
- GPT-5 scores above 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam
- AI wins IMO gold medal
- AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark
- AI scores ≥85% on ARC-AGI-2

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

If resolution-relevant information regarding the events mentioned above is not available by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If by that date there is still no clear information indicating that one of the listed events has occurred,  this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/AI.png
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/AI2.png

Nothing Ever Happens: AI Edition

This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for Aster (ASTER/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 17:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final “Low” price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ASTER/USDT “Low” prices available at:
https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ASTER_USDT
with the chart set to “1m” (one-minute candles) on the top bar.

Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance ASTER/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Will Aster dip to $0.80 by December 31, 2026?

The winners of the Steam Awards for 2025 will be chosen by community vote. Results will be announced on January 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the game which wins Sit Back and Relax in the 2025 Steam Awards.

If for any reason no winner is declared by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In case of a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the game whose name comes first in alphabetical order.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Steam, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.

Will Two Point Museum win Sit Back and Relax in the 2025 Steam Awards?

This is a market to predict which athlete will win the 2025 ESPYS award for Best Driver.

If the listed driver wins the 2025 ESPYS award for Best Driver, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

If the 2025 ESPYS are cancelled or postponed past August 16, 2025, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be ESPN (https://www.espn.com/espys/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 ESPYS award for Best Driver?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jacksonville Jaguars win the AFC South in the 2025-2026 NFL Season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If at any point it becomes impossible for the Jacksonville Jaguars team to win the AFC South based on the rules of the NFL (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated from finishing first in the division), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.

Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the AFC South?

This is a polymarket on whether the listed team will win the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team is officially crowned the winner of the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed team to win the tournament (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the market will resolve to "No".

If the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League is canceled or not completed by October 1, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source will be official information from UEFA Champions League (https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Los Angeles Rams win the NFC West in the 2025-2026 NFL Season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If at any point it becomes impossible for the Los Angeles Rams team to win the NFC West based on the rules of the NFL (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated from finishing first in the division), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.

Will the Los Angeles Rams win the NFC West?

The winners of the Steam Award for 2025 will be chosen by community vote. Results will be announced on December 31, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the game which wins Game of the Year in the 2025 Steam Awards.

If for any reason no winner is declared by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In case of a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the game whose name comes first in alphabetical order.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Steam, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.

Will 'Clair Obscur: Expedition 33' win Game of the Year in the 2025 Steam Awards?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Bad Bunny performs live and in person during the Super Bowl LX halftime show currently scheduled for February 8, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If this event is cancelled or otherwise delayed beyond March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be footage of the Super Bowl LIX halftime show, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Bad Bunny perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?

The winners of the Steam Awards for 2025 will be chosen by community vote. Results will be announced on January 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the game which wins Best Game You Suck At in the 2025 Steam Awards.

If for any reason no winner is declared by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In case of a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the game whose name comes first in alphabetical order.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Steam, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.

Will NINJA GAIDEN 4 win Best Game You Suck At in the 2025 Steam Awards?

If a Bitcoin hard fork occurs between July 7 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Bitcoin hard fork before 2026?

This market resolves to "Yes" if DraftKings makes at least one prediction market live and accessible to users on their U.S. platform in any U.S. state by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it resolves to "No."

A “prediction market” refers to a tradable binary contract on a future event that is executed on an exchange venue (e.g., a CFTC-regulated Designated Contract Market) and offered on inside DraftKings’ U.S. site/app. Whitelabeling with a partner DCM via an FCM or other integration will qualify however fixed-odds sportsbook bets and fantasy contests do not qualify. Announcements alone do not qualify; the product must be operational.

The resolution's source will be a consensus of credible reporting.  


Will DraftKings launch a prediction market in 2025? 

The winners of the Steam Awards for 2025 will be chosen by community vote. Results will be announced on January 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the game which wins VR Game of the Year in the 2025 Steam Awards.

If for any reason no winner is declared by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In case of a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the game whose name comes first in alphabetical order.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Steam, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.

Will Arken Age win VR Game of the Year at the 2025 Steam Awards?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ubisoft announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs.

The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents Ubisoft.

A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Ubisoft announce bankruptcy by June 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2025/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses shows 'A Minecraft Movie' (2025) as the film with the highest 2025 gross once data for December 31 is made available. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2025 - dates outside of 2025 will not count toward this movie's gross.

In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner.

If there is no final data available by January 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

What will happen before GTA VI?

New Playboi Carti Album
$576,567 Vol.
64%
0123456789
%

Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire
$374,937 Vol.
63%

GPT-6 released
$170,927 Vol.
63%
0123456789
%

New Rihanna Album
$369,186 Vol.
57%
0123456789
%

Trump out as President
$306,676 Vol.
51%
0123456789
%

China invades Taiwan
$903,423 Vol.
51%
0123456789
%

Jesus Christ returns
$7,112,376 Vol.
49%

Bitcoin hits $1m
$2,340,791 Vol.
49%

Market Context

What will happen before GTA VI?

Rules

What will happen before GTA VI?

Market Context

What will happen before GTA VI?

About

Related

What will happen before GTA VI?

New Playboi Carti Album $576,567 Vol.64%0123456789%buy Yes66¢buy No38¢

Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire$374,937 Vol.63%buy Yes64¢buy No39¢

GPT-6 released$170,927 Vol.63%0123456789%buy Yes65¢buy No40¢

New Rihanna Album$369,186 Vol.57%0123456789%buy Yes59¢buy No44¢

Trump out as President $306,676 Vol.51%0123456789%buy Yes52¢buy No50¢

China invades Taiwan $903,423 Vol.51%0123456789%buy Yes51¢buy No50¢

Jesus Christ returns$7,112,376 Vol.49%buy Yes49¢buy No52¢

Bitcoin hits $1m$2,340,791 Vol.49%buy Yes49¢buy No52¢

Market Context

What will happen before GTA VI?

Rules

What will happen before GTA VI?

Market Context

What will happen before GTA VI?

About

Related

New Playboi Carti Album
$576,567 Vol.
64%
0123456789
%

Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire
$374,937 Vol.
63%

GPT-6 released
$170,927 Vol.
63%
0123456789
%

New Rihanna Album
$369,186 Vol.
57%
0123456789
%

Trump out as President
$306,676 Vol.
51%
0123456789
%

China invades Taiwan
$903,423 Vol.
51%
0123456789
%

Jesus Christ returns
$7,112,376 Vol.
49%

Bitcoin hits $1m
$2,340,791 Vol.
49%