Market icon

GTA VI released before June 2026?

Market icon

GTA VI released before June 2026?

2% chance
Polymarket

$13,287,683 Vol.

2% chance
Polymarket

$13,287,683 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count. The resolution source will be official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.Rockstar Games' official announcement on November 6, 2025, postponing Grand Theft Auto VI's launch to November 19, 2026—six months beyond the prior May 26 target—has solidified trader consensus at 98.4% for "No," reflecting the game's massive scale, rigorous polish standards, and history of delays from an initial Fall 2025 window. With the Rockstar website confirming the post-June 2026 date for PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X|S, and no updates indicating acceleration amid ongoing development, markets price in near-certainty. Realistic upsets hinge on improbable early certification or surprise advancement, though Rockstar's "we believe in this date" stance and lack of precursor momentum for speedier release underscore the low-risk "No" position ahead of the Fall window.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.

The resolution source will be official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
Volume
$13,287,683
End Date
May 31, 2026
Market Opened
May 2, 2025, 12:59 PM ET

Resolver

0x6A9D22261...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count. The resolution source will be official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count. The resolution source will be official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.Rockstar Games' official announcement on November 6, 2025, postponing Grand Theft Auto VI's launch to November 19, 2026—six months beyond the prior May 26 target—has solidified trader consensus at 98.4% for "No," reflecting the game's massive scale, rigorous polish standards, and history of delays from an initial Fall 2025 window. With the Rockstar website confirming the post-June 2026 date for PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X|S, and no updates indicating acceleration amid ongoing development, markets price in near-certainty. Realistic upsets hinge on improbable early certification or surprise advancement, though Rockstar's "we believe in this date" stance and lack of precursor momentum for speedier release underscore the low-risk "No" position ahead of the Fall window.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.

The resolution source will be official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
Volume
$13,287,683
End Date
May 31, 2026
Market Opened
May 2, 2025, 12:59 PM ET

Resolver

0x6A9D22261...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count. The resolution source will be official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"GTA VI released before June 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 2% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 2¢, the market collectively assigns a 2% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "GTA VI released before June 2026?" has generated $13.3 million in total trading volume since the market launched on May 2, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "GTA VI released before June 2026?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "GTA VI released before June 2026?" is 2% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 2% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "GTA VI released before June 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.