Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a near-certain 100% implied probability for "The Drama" grossing $14-15 million in its domestic opening weekend, driven by final tallies from Box Office Mojo and The Numbers confirming $14.38 million across 3,087 theaters from April 3-5, 2026—spot-on with pre-release tracking of $13-18 million. A24's dark rom-com, starring Zendaya and Robert Pattinson, benefited from Certified Fresh 79% Rotten Tomatoes scores, solid $1.7 million previews, and counterprogramming against family blockbusters like "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie," securing third place despite breaking Zendaya's opening-weekend top-spot streak. With official reports finalized and no significant recounts expected, upset scenarios are negligible barring rare data revisions from studios.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated"The Drama" Opening Weekend Box Office (Higher Strikes)
"The Drama" Opening Weekend Box Office (Higher Strikes)
14-15m 100.0%
<10m <1%
10-11m <1%
11-12m <1%
$202,519 Vol.
$202,519 Vol.
Apr 6, 2026
<10m
No
10-11m
No
11-12m
No
12-13m
No
13-14m
No
14-15m
Yes
15-16m
No
16-17m
No
>17m
No
14-15m 100.0%
<10m <1%
10-11m <1%
11-12m <1%
$202,519 Vol.
$202,519 Vol.
Apr 6, 2026
<10m
$5,668 Vol.
No
10-11m
$5,077 Vol.
No
11-12m
$6,656 Vol.
No
12-13m
$11,707 Vol.
No
13-14m
$20,253 Vol.
No
14-15m
$21,715 Vol.
Yes
15-16m
$42,049 Vol.
No
16-17m
$30,194 Vol.
No
>17m
$59,199 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to how much "The Drama" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (April 3 - April 5) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a near-certain 100% implied probability for "The Drama" grossing $14-15 million in its domestic opening weekend, driven by final tallies from Box Office Mojo and The Numbers confirming $14.38 million across 3,087 theaters from April 3-5, 2026—spot-on with pre-release tracking of $13-18 million. A24's dark rom-com, starring Zendaya and Robert Pattinson, benefited from Certified Fresh 79% Rotten Tomatoes scores, solid $1.7 million previews, and counterprogramming against family blockbusters like "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie," securing third place despite breaking Zendaya's opening-weekend top-spot streak. With official reports finalized and no significant recounts expected, upset scenarios are negligible barring rare data revisions from studios.
This market will resolve according to how much "The Drama" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (April 3 - April 5) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Mar 31, 2026, 6:09 PM ET
Volume
$202,519End Date
Apr 6, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 6:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve according to how much "The Drama" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (April 3 - April 5) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a near-certain 100% implied probability for "The Drama" grossing $14-15 million in its domestic opening weekend, driven by final tallies from Box Office Mojo and The Numbers confirming $14.38 million across 3,087 theaters from April 3-5, 2026—spot-on with pre-release tracking of $13-18 million. A24's dark rom-com, starring Zendaya and Robert Pattinson, benefited from Certified Fresh 79% Rotten Tomatoes scores, solid $1.7 million previews, and counterprogramming against family blockbusters like "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie," securing third place despite breaking Zendaya's opening-weekend top-spot streak. With official reports finalized and no significant recounts expected, upset scenarios are negligible barring rare data revisions from studios.
This market will resolve according to how much "The Drama" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (April 3 - April 5) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$202,519End Date
Apr 6, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 6:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a near-certain 100% implied probability for "The Drama" grossing $14-15 million in its domestic opening weekend, driven by final tallies from Box Office Mojo and The Numbers confirming $14.38 million across 3,087 theaters from April 3-5, 2026—spot-on with pre-release tracking of $13-18 million. A24's dark rom-com, starring Zendaya and Robert Pattinson, benefited from Certified Fresh 79% Rotten Tomatoes scores, solid $1.7 million previews, and counterprogramming against family blockbusters like "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie," securing third place despite breaking Zendaya's opening-weekend top-spot streak. With official reports finalized and no significant recounts expected, upset scenarios are negligible barring rare data revisions from studios.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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