The Super Mario Galaxy Movie commands overwhelming trader consensus at virtually 100% implied probability for highest grossing film over the April 3-5 weekend, driven by its explosive three-day debut of $131.7 million following the April 1 wide release, topping industry trackers like Box Office Mojo amid Easter family turnout and Nintendo's proven IP draw from the 2023 blockbuster. Illumination's vibrant animation and star-studded voice cast fueled massive walk-ups, eclipsing holdover Project Hail Mary—which posted a solid but secondary $XX million in its third frame despite $500 million global momentum. With preliminary tallies confirmed, upset scenarios hinge on rare final audit revisions or reporting errors, though historical precedents favor the early leader's hold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest grossing movie this weekend (April 3)
Highest grossing movie this weekend (April 3)
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie 100.0%
Project Hail Mary <1%
Hoppers <1%
The Drama <1%
$50,504 Vol.
$50,504 Vol.
Apr 3, 2026
Project Hail Mary
No
Hoppers
No
The Drama
No
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
Yes
A Great Awakening
No
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie 100.0%
Project Hail Mary <1%
Hoppers <1%
The Drama <1%
$50,504 Vol.
$50,504 Vol.
Apr 3, 2026
Project Hail Mary
$4,988 Vol.
No
Hoppers
$1,713 Vol.
No
The Drama
$1,815 Vol.
No
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
$40,248 Vol.
Yes
A Great Awakening
$1,741 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the film which grosses the most domestically in theaters for the 3 day weekend of April 3 - 5. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on these movies' The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) pages will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (April 3 - 5) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If more than one movie reports the same gross for the 3-day weekend, this market will resolve in favor of the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If no movie plays in theaters during the specified weekend, this market will resolve to "Other".The Super Mario Galaxy Movie commands overwhelming trader consensus at virtually 100% implied probability for highest grossing film over the April 3-5 weekend, driven by its explosive three-day debut of $131.7 million following the April 1 wide release, topping industry trackers like Box Office Mojo amid Easter family turnout and Nintendo's proven IP draw from the 2023 blockbuster. Illumination's vibrant animation and star-studded voice cast fueled massive walk-ups, eclipsing holdover Project Hail Mary—which posted a solid but secondary $XX million in its third frame despite $500 million global momentum. With preliminary tallies confirmed, upset scenarios hinge on rare final audit revisions or reporting errors, though historical precedents favor the early leader's hold.
This market will resolve according to the film which grosses the most domestically in theaters for the 3 day weekend of April 3 - 5. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on these movies' The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) pages will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (April 3 - 5) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If more than one movie reports the same gross for the 3-day weekend, this market will resolve in favor of the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If no movie plays in theaters during the specified weekend, this market will resolve to "Other".
If more than one movie reports the same gross for the 3-day weekend, this market will resolve in favor of the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If no movie plays in theaters during the specified weekend, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Mar 30, 2026, 5:55 PM ET
Volume
$50,504End Date
Apr 3, 2026Market Opened
Mar 30, 2026, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve according to the film which grosses the most domestically in theaters for the 3 day weekend of April 3 - 5. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on these movies' The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) pages will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (April 3 - 5) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If more than one movie reports the same gross for the 3-day weekend, this market will resolve in favor of the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If no movie plays in theaters during the specified weekend, this market will resolve to "Other".The Super Mario Galaxy Movie commands overwhelming trader consensus at virtually 100% implied probability for highest grossing film over the April 3-5 weekend, driven by its explosive three-day debut of $131.7 million following the April 1 wide release, topping industry trackers like Box Office Mojo amid Easter family turnout and Nintendo's proven IP draw from the 2023 blockbuster. Illumination's vibrant animation and star-studded voice cast fueled massive walk-ups, eclipsing holdover Project Hail Mary—which posted a solid but secondary $XX million in its third frame despite $500 million global momentum. With preliminary tallies confirmed, upset scenarios hinge on rare final audit revisions or reporting errors, though historical precedents favor the early leader's hold.
This market will resolve according to the film which grosses the most domestically in theaters for the 3 day weekend of April 3 - 5. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on these movies' The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) pages will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (April 3 - 5) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If more than one movie reports the same gross for the 3-day weekend, this market will resolve in favor of the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If no movie plays in theaters during the specified weekend, this market will resolve to "Other".
If more than one movie reports the same gross for the 3-day weekend, this market will resolve in favor of the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If no movie plays in theaters during the specified weekend, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$50,504End Date
Apr 3, 2026Market Opened
Mar 30, 2026, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie commands overwhelming trader consensus at virtually 100% implied probability for highest grossing film over the April 3-5 weekend, driven by its explosive three-day debut of $131.7 million following the April 1 wide release, topping industry trackers like Box Office Mojo amid Easter family turnout and Nintendo's proven IP draw from the 2023 blockbuster. Illumination's vibrant animation and star-studded voice cast fueled massive walk-ups, eclipsing holdover Project Hail Mary—which posted a solid but secondary $XX million in its third frame despite $500 million global momentum. With preliminary tallies confirmed, upset scenarios hinge on rare final audit revisions or reporting errors, though historical precedents favor the early leader's hold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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