**Strong trader consensus behind the 93.3% market-implied probability for “No” stems primarily from the confirmed development timeline placing The Elder Scrolls VI no earlier than 2028.** Multiple credible reports, including Bloomberg’s Jason Schreier in July 2026, indicate the project remains at least two to three years from completion following full production starting after Starfield in 2023. Bethesda executives, including Todd Howard, have repeatedly described the title as “a long way off,” with recent Xbox leadership noting internal playtests and a major milestone reached but offering no release window before the late 2020s. Historical patterns for Bethesda’s large-scale RPGs and the studio’s focus on Creation Engine 3 further reinforce that a 2026 launch would require an unprecedented acceleration unlikely to occur in the remaining months. While an abrupt surprise drop cannot be entirely ruled out in entertainment, the absence of any public build, marketing campaign, or official confirmation makes such an outcome remote.